As the 2027 French presidential election looms, the legal troubles surrounding Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Rally party, have done little to dampen her party’s growing influence. In a Paris courtroom, the first act of this high-stakes political drama is already unfolding, with Le Pen appealing a conviction related to the embezzlement of European Parliament funds.
While Le Pen has softened her rhetoric, presenting the original verdict as an assault on democracy by judges intent on thwarting her political ambitions, the appeal court’s decision will determine whether she can run for the presidency for a fourth time. If the sentence is upheld, her 30-year-old protégé, Jordan Bardella, is poised to step in as the party’s candidate.
Bardella has performed a delicate balancing act, defending Le Pen’s innocence while also demonstrating his own credentials to succeed her. As party president, he has worked to broaden the National Rally’s appeal beyond its traditional blue-collar base, courting the traditional right and business interests.
Ominously, the French far-right appears to be dismantling the “republican barrier” that has hitherto blocked its path to the Élysée Palace. Recent polling suggests that Le Pen’s legal troubles have had little impact on her party’s fortunes, with its ideas steadily penetrating the mainstream while retaining an insurgent, anti-establishment appeal.
More than 40% of respondents believe the National Rally would improve France’s situation on issues such as security, reindustrialisation, public services, and the cost of living. Around one-third view the party as the “only one that can do things differently”. Growing numbers of voters are sympathetic to the party’s policy of “national preference”, which would license discrimination against foreign residents in housing, welfare, and employment.
As the United States actively seeks to undermine the European Union and promote far-right nationalist parties as an “enemy within”, the stakes in 2027 will be dizzingly high. Whether the eventual opponent is Le Pen or Bardella, France’s mainstream parties have less than 500 days to find a way to fend off a threat that has never been more real.
