The Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA) is witnessing a dramatic downturn in the condominium market, with sales of newly completed units plummeting to their lowest levels since 1991. A recent report from Urbanation reveals that 2025 marked the fourth consecutive year of declining condo sales, with a staggering drop of 60 per cent compared to the previous year, translating to just 1,599 units sold. This decline is not only significant but alarming, as it represents a 91 per cent decrease from the region’s ten-year average and an astonishing 95 per cent drop since 2021.
Cancellation of Projects Reaches Record Levels
The turmoil in the GTHA condo market is further exacerbated by the cancellation of 28 active projects, resulting in the scrapping of 7,243 units in total. This figure more than doubles the number of cancellations from 2024 and surpasses the previous record of 3,680 units cancelled in 2018. Shaun Hildebrand, president of Urbanation, stated, “As the condo market enters the fifth year of its largest ever correction, the duration of this downturn should be a significant cause for concern as it relates to future supply.”
The gravity of the situation is underscored by the fact that eight of the cancelled projects, accounting for 2,189 units, have been repurposed into purpose-built rental properties. This adds a slight silver lining to an otherwise grim picture, as it aims to address the growing demand for rental accommodation. However, with only 1,434 units switched to rentals in 2024, these conversions are insufficient to compensate for the broader decline in condo starts.
A Decline in New Developments
The report highlights that the number of new condo construction starts nosedived by 63 per cent year-on-year in 2025, with only 3,272 units initiated—marking a multi-decade low. Developers launched merely ten new projects last year, leading to a total of just 1,425 units that were made available. Unfortunately, only 22 per cent of these were sold, a decline from the 24 per cent sales rate recorded in 2024 and a stark contrast to the 81 per cent success rate for new launches in 2021.
The cumulative effect of these trends is evident in the significantly reduced inventory under construction, which has dropped by 88 per cent over the past three years to reach a ten-year low. Compounding the issue, the average selling price for new condo units has also decreased, falling to a low of £1,123 per square foot—an eight per cent decline from the previous year. In the resale market, completed units from the past three years averaged £856 per square foot in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Future Projections and Concerns
Looking ahead, Hildebrand emphasises the uncertainty surrounding the future of condo completions, predicting a potential supply crunch extending well into the 2030s. “By the end of the decade, we know with certainty that there won’t be any new condo completions. What we don’t know is how far into the 2030s the supply crunch will last. If rental construction can’t fill the void, this raises serious questions around the impact on affordability,” he cautioned.
The decline in new developments and sales raises pressing concerns about the GTHA’s housing landscape. With affordability already a sensitive issue, the long-term implications of such a significant downturn could further exacerbate challenges for prospective homeowners and renters alike.
Why it Matters
The current state of Toronto’s condominium market serves as a critical indicator of broader economic trends and housing availability in the region. As the market grapples with unprecedented cancellations and declining sales, the potential for a future housing shortage looms large. This situation not only endangers the livelihoods of those within the construction and real estate sectors but also raises urgent questions about housing affordability and accessibility for the average Canadian. With the trajectory of the condo market closely intertwined with economic stability, stakeholders must remain vigilant to navigate the complexities ahead.
