In a significant shift, former President Donald Trump is witnessing a troubling decline in support among non-college educated voters, a demographic that was crucial to his past electoral victories. According to insights from CNN polling analyst Harry Enten, this trend poses a daunting challenge for the Republican Party as it gears up for the upcoming 2026 midterms.
Declining Numbers for Trump
Recent analyses reveal that Trump’s approval rating among voters without a college degree has plummeted dramatically. In the lead-up to the 2024 election, Trump enjoyed a 14-point advantage over Kamala Harris within this group. Fast forward to now, and he finds himself trailing by nine points—a striking 23-point reversal. “He is underwater by nine points,” Enten remarked during a recent broadcast. “This is a clear indication that Trump is losing ground with the very voters who helped propel him to the presidency.”
The implications of this change are significant, as a growing number of non-college voters are distancing themselves from the Republican Party as a whole, although the party still maintains a narrow net-positive approval rating.
Manufacturing Jobs and Broken Promises
One of the central tenets of Trump’s appeal to non-college educated voters has been his commitment to revitalising American manufacturing jobs through aggressive tariffs. Unfortunately for him, this promise has not come to fruition. In 2025 alone, the manufacturing sector lost approximately 70,000 jobs, marking a continuation of a troubling trend that has persisted for years.
The economic landscape has not only affected non-college voters; it has also led to waning support among evangelical Protestants, another cornerstone of Trump’s voter base. A recent survey by the Pew Research Center indicates a decline in enthusiasm for Trump’s policies and overall job performance, despite the demographic still showing substantial backing for him.
Trump’s Optimism Amidst Declining Support
Despite these alarming trends, Trump remains remarkably optimistic about his standing. Just last week, he claimed on Truth Social that his polling numbers were the highest he had ever received, even as data suggests a downward trajectory for his approval ratings during his second term. “Obviously, people like a strong and powerful country, with the best economy, EVER!” he proclaimed, highlighting a disconnection between his message and the realities faced by many of his supporters.
Why it Matters
The changing dynamics of voter support present a critical moment for both Trump and the Republican Party as they approach the 2026 midterm elections. A sustained decline in support from non-college educated voters could spell disaster for Republican candidates, particularly if they fail to address the economic concerns that initially brought these voters into the fold. This situation underscores the importance of aligning political messaging with the tangible realities of voters’ experiences, as the party navigates a landscape increasingly shaped by economic uncertainties and unmet promises.
