As the UK braces for the potential fallout from President Donald Trump’s proposed 10% tariff on all goods exported to the US, supply chain experts warn that British consumers could face higher prices and less choice on supermarket shelves.
The tariff, set to take effect on 1 February and potentially rising to 25% by June, is part of the US leader’s ongoing dispute with Denmark over the purchase of Greenland. Trump has threatened the same measures against several other European nations, including key NATO allies.
Oisín Hanrahan, co-founder and CEO of supply chain firm Keychain, told The Update Desk that the tariffs would have immediate ripple effects beyond just trade statistics. “For many British food producers, exports are what keep factories running at scale. When tariffs squeeze margins in the US, firms respond by cutting volume, delaying investment or trying to recover costs elsewhere,” he said.
This could lead to “higher prices, fewer discounts and less choice on UK supermarket shelves, particularly in processed and branded foods where volume matters most,” Hanrahan warned.
The economic impact of such tariffs is also a major concern. Analysis from asset management group Rathbones suggests a 10% tariff could knock 0.1% off Britain’s fragile GDP growth, while a 25% rate could hit output by 0.2-0.3%. Capital Economics estimates the overall hit could be even worse, potentially triggering a recession.
Despite the grim forecasts, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has so far ruled out retaliation, saying a trade war “isn’t in anybody’s interest.” However, Hanrahan cautioned that if the UK did decide to hit back with its own tariffs, “the impact on consumers would be more immediate.”
As the UK government scrambles to avert an economic crisis, the threat from across the Atlantic looms large. Businesses and investors must brace for a world defined by “sharper spheres of influence,” warned Rathbones’ John Wyn-Evans. The fallout from Trump’s Greenland dispute could be felt in the aisles of British supermarkets.
