The UK has successfully returned 281 migrants to France as part of its new “one in, one out” agreement with the French government, according to Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. Speaking to LBC, Mahmood confirmed that 350 individuals had arrived in the UK through the programme’s designated route, while acknowledging that the number of removals is “relatively small.”
Aims of the Agreement
The UK government is optimistic that this initiative will deter illegal Channel crossings by small boats, which have surged in recent years. In 2025 alone, 41,472 migrants made the perilous journey across the English Channel—a stark increase of nearly 5,000 from the previous year and the highest figure recorded since 2022.
Under the newly established agreement with France, the UK commits to returning one migrant for every individual who is granted asylum in the UK. This arrangement is designed to streamline the processes of detaining and returning migrants, allowing the UK to detain anyone who crosses the Channel and arrange their return to France within approximately two weeks.
Fluctuating Numbers
The flow of migrants under this scheme has varied since its inception last September. As of October 2025, France had accepted 26 individuals back, while the UK welcomed 18 in return. Although initial numbers were modest, recent months have seen an uptick, yet they remain low compared to the overall volume of Channel crossings.
Mahmood pointed out the “normal discrepancies” in the figures, stating, “This was a pilot. It was designed to prove that this new model of working with the French could work.” She acknowledged the “practical issues” involved in swiftly detaining migrants and arranging their transport to France, which have contributed to the slower uptake of the programme.
Challenges and Improvements
One of the key challenges highlighted by Mahmood was the difficulty in raising awareness about the programme among potential migrants. Competing against organised immigration crime has made it challenging to effectively communicate the benefits and processes of the legal pathway to asylum seekers. “We’ve managed to put some of those issues right,” she noted, indicating a hopeful outlook for future engagement.
In response to the fluctuating numbers, a spokesperson for Downing Street reiterated, “We’ve always been clear, the numbers will fluctuate.” While early data showed a higher ratio of returns to France compared to arrivals, the government remains committed to the programme’s goals.
Why it Matters
The success or failure of this agreement will significantly impact the UK’s approach to immigration and asylum. As the number of migrants crossing the Channel continues to rise, the efficacy of the “one in, one out” framework could either alleviate pressure on the UK’s asylum system or exacerbate existing challenges. The government’s ability to execute this agreement effectively will be critical in shaping public perception and political discourse surrounding immigration policy in the UK.
