A rapidly intensifying El Niño weather phenomenon is poised to thrust an alarming 50 million individuals into acute hunger by the close of next year, according to projections from the United Nations. This impending crisis adds to the millions already grappling with severe food insecurity, exacerbated by prolonged droughts across Africa and the escalating pressures on food prices spurred by ongoing conflicts, notably the war in Iran.
A Looming Threat
The World Food Programme (WFP) has issued a stark warning that even a less severe El Niño could significantly worsen the plight of many nations already struggling with food shortages. Currently, 225 million people in 45 countries are classified as experiencing acute food insecurity, and the anticipated climatic shifts could push this figure upwards by more than 20%. Regions such as Central and South America, the Caribbean, and southern Africa are expected to bear the brunt of these adverse conditions.
The El Niño phenomenon, which emerges periodically in the Pacific Ocean, is known for its ability to disrupt global rainfall patterns. This year’s occurrence is being characterised as potentially the strongest in over seven decades, with some experts labelling it a “super El Niño,” although this term lacks official recognition. The ramifications are expected to be far-reaching, particularly in south and southeast Asia, where reduced rainfall threatens agricultural yields.
The Climate Connection
Experts assert that the strength and impacts of this year’s El Niño are intricately linked to the ongoing climate crisis. Earlier assessments indicated that a robust El Niño could interact with rising global temperatures, potentially making 2027 the hottest year on record. The convergence of these two forces could have dire consequences for food production and availability across the globe.
The WFP has recognised the urgency of the situation and is aiming to mitigate the effects of this extreme weather through early warning systems and anticipatory relief measures, allocating a budget of at least $80 million (£60 million) for these efforts. However, the organisation’s capacity to respond effectively is hindered by a lack of comprehensive data, a situation exacerbated by funding cuts that have limited data collection initiatives.
Southern Africa’s Vulnerability
In southern Africa, the primary agricultural growing season stretches from October 2026 to March 2027. However, the most severe impacts of the El Niño are expected to manifest during the lean season that follows, particularly in 2027-2028. Richard Choularton, the WFP’s director of climate and resilience services, emphasised, “The biggest food security impact in southern Africa will be during the 2027 to 2028 lean season.”
While farmers may initially benefit from the remnants of a strong harvest in 2025, the overall outlook remains precarious. Jean-Martin Bauer, WFP’s director of food security, noted that while food prices had been relatively stable at the end of 2025, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has begun to exert upward pressure on prices once more.
Global Implications
The potential for increased food prices is not confined to the regions directly impacted by El Niño. Global agricultural markets may react adversely, particularly if major food-exporting nations decide to restrict exports in response to local shortages. Bauer cautioned that “at the regional level, there could certainly be high prices and problems with food access.”
In the United Kingdom and across Europe, farmers are already sounding alarms about the detrimental effects of extreme heat and insufficient rainfall on their harvests. Retailers are preparing for the likelihood of increased prices as the ripple effects of this climatic upheaval spread.
Why it Matters
The looming El Niño event underscores the fragility of global food security in an era increasingly defined by climate upheaval and geopolitical tensions. As millions face the spectre of acute hunger, the need for robust international cooperation and proactive measures becomes ever more pressing. The situation calls not only for immediate humanitarian assistance but also for long-term strategies to bolster food resilience in vulnerable regions. Without decisive action, the consequences could be catastrophic, further entrenching cycles of poverty and hunger in already affected communities.
