A recent survey indicates that while Pierre Poilievre retains significant support among Conservative voters, a notable faction is increasingly questioning his leadership as the party prepares for the next election. The Angus Reid Institute’s latest poll reveals a complex landscape for the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), with 30 per cent of previous supporters advocating for a change in leadership before the upcoming election—an increase from 18 per cent in August.
Support for Poilievre Declines
The poll, conducted from April 15-17, shows that 57 per cent of those who voted Conservative in the last election still want Poilievre at the helm. However, the data also points to a worrying trend: his approval rating among this group has dipped significantly. A striking 75 per cent of past Conservative voters hold a favourable view of Poilievre, down from 88 per cent just a few months prior.
The timing of this poll is crucial. It comes on the heels of several high-profile defections, including that of Marilyn Gladu, who left the party alongside three fellow Conservative MPs to join Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals. Such moves may have contributed to an air of instability that is unsettling party loyalists.
Gender Divide in Support
The survey highlights a stark gender divide regarding Poilievre’s appeal. Among men aged 35 to 54, nearly half express a positive opinion of the Conservative leader. In contrast, the response from women is markedly less enthusiastic; fewer than three in ten women across all age groups view him favourably, with half indicating a very unfavourable impression. This disparity raises questions about Poilievre’s ability to broaden his appeal to a crucial demographic ahead of the election.
Comparing Poilievre’s standing to that of Prime Minister Mark Carney, the numbers tell a revealing story. While 59 per cent of the general population approve of Carney’s leadership, one in three respondents disapprove. This suggests that, while the Liberal leader has garnered a level of acceptance, Poilievre’s challenges remain pronounced.
Public Sentiment on Governance
The poll also gauged public opinion on the implications of Carney’s newly acquired majority, which emerged following notable by-election victories and the floor crossings of Conservative and NDP MPs. Opinions are mixed: 44 per cent view the Liberal majority as a stabilising force, while 42 per cent express concerns that the current composition of the House of Commons does not accurately reflect the electorate’s choices from the last federal election.
In the face of these challenges, Poilievre’s attempts to rebrand himself—such as participating in popular podcasts and adopting a softer tone—appear to have had little impact on his standing among Canadians. Spokesperson Sam Lilly defended Poilievre’s leadership, pointing to a recent leadership vote where he secured 87.4 per cent support as evidence of his backing within the party. Lilly also emphasised the Conservatives’ role in pressuring the Liberals to abandon certain policies, such as the carbon tax.
The Polling Methodology
The Angus Reid poll surveyed 1,646 Canadian adults, though it is notable that the organisation does not provide a margin of error for online polls. As the political landscape shifts, these figures will be crucial for understanding the dynamics within the Conservative Party as it seeks to rejuvenate its platform and appeal.
Why it Matters
The findings of this poll underscore a pivotal moment for the Conservative Party and its leader. Poilievre’s declining approval ratings among his base, coupled with the significant gender gap in support, suggest that the party must address internal dissent and broaden its appeal to ensure a competitive stance in the next election. As the political climate evolves, how Poilievre navigates these challenges will be critical not only for his leadership but also for the Conservative Party’s future in a rapidly changing political landscape.