A major new study has quantified the profound toll that a succession of national crises has taken on the psychological wellbeing of the British public, revealing that events ranging from the Brexit referendum to the Covid-19 lockdowns have driven a sustained and clinically significant rise in depression and anxiety. Researchers at University College London found that five distinct “systemic shocks” over the last decade have pushed hundreds of thousands of additional people toward their GPs for mental health support, creating a legacy of distress that has yet to recede.
The Anatomy of a Crisis
The research, led by Dr Annie Jeffery and published in BMJ Mental Health, analysed data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study, tracking 87,857 adults annually between 2009 and 2024. Using the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12), a validated screening tool for psychological distress, the team mapped the population’s mental health trajectory against five major upheavals: the 2016 EU referendum, the first and second Covid-19 lockdowns, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and Liz Truss’s mini-budget that September.
The findings paint a stark picture of cumulative harm. While psychological distress had been climbing since 2009, the rate of increase accelerated sharply from 2015 onwards. Crucially, the elevated levels of distress triggered by these events have persisted; the population has not returned to the lower baselines seen before 2016.
“The past decade or so has been tumultuous, shaped by multiple overlapping shocks and ongoing uncertainty and instability that have impacted mental health in Britain,” Dr Jeffery said. “We have shown that major government decisions and current global events can have substantial impacts on people’s mental health.”
Lockdowns and the Referendum: The Heaviest Blows
Not all shocks landed with equal force. The first Covid-19 lockdown in March 2020, when the Prime Minister instructed the nation to “stay at home,” exerted the most devastating impact. The resultant jump in GHQ-12 scores was equivalent to an estimated 900,000 additional people presenting to their GP with symptoms of depression.
The Brexit referendum in June 2016 ranked as the second most damaging event. The decision to leave the European Union correlated with a rise in mental ill-health equivalent to roughly 120,000 more people seeking primary care for depression.
Dr Jeffery noted a distinction in how these events manifested. “We observed increased psychological distress immediately after the Brexit referendum and the first Covid-19 lockdown, with more insidious monthly increases in psychological distress after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the 2022 mini-budget.”
The Slow Burn of Economic and Geopolitical Instability
The invasion of Ukraine and the Truss mini-budget acted differently—less as sudden seismic waves, more as a rising tide. The onset of war in Eastern Europe saw an estimated 15,000 additional Britons per month visiting their family doctor for depressive symptoms. The economic chaos following the mini-budget proved even more corrosive in the short term, driving an estimated 23,000 extra monthly GP visits for depression.
Andy Bell, chief executive of the Centre for Mental Health, said the findings align with the organisation’s understanding of how structural pressures compound. “There is clear evidence that Covid had a big impact on mental health. And it makes sense that the other ‘shocks’ listed here would do so, either directly, by making people feel less secure and less connected, or as after-effects, for example the cost of living crisis.”
He added a crucial contextual layer: years of austerity had stripped away the social buffers that might have absorbed these blows. “Rising distress in the population is not due to a single cause but the effect of all these things added together, made worse by years of austerity giving fewer buffers against ‘shocks’ like this.”
A System Under Strain
The human cost is mirrored by a health service buckling under unprecedented demand. The total number of people in England in contact with NHS mental health services has nearly doubled, rising from 2.64 million in 2016–17 to 4.13 million in 2024–25. Monthly referrals have surged by 47 per cent in just over four years, climbing from 360,000 in April 2022 to 530,000 in July 2026.
Tom Pollard, director of policy, campaigns and public affairs at the charity Mind, described a system stretched to breaking point. “The huge rise in demand for care – driven by ‘shocks’ causing anxiety, stress and worry – has left NHS services struggling as more people than ever are reaching out for support.”
The Centre for Mental Health estimates the annual economic cost of this crisis at £300 billion. Meanwhile, a record 2.8 million people are economically inactive due to long-term sickness, and nearly one million young people aged 16 to 24 are classified as NEET—not in education, employment, or training.
Why it Matters
This research moves the conversation beyond anecdote into the realm of hard epidemiology, proving that political choices and global events are not abstract concepts but determinants of clinical outcomes. The persistence of elevated distress years after the initial shocks suggests we are not witnessing a temporary spike but a structural shift in the nation’s mental health baseline. As the Fonagy inquiry prepares to report on the explosion in diagnoses of mental illness, ADHD, and autism, policymakers face an uncomfortable truth: the NHS cannot treat its way out of a crisis rooted in a decade of instability. Without a cross-government strategy that treats economic security, social cohesion, and public services as mental health infrastructure, the waiting lists will only grow longer, and the human cost will only deepen.