In a significant development, Alberta and the federal government are on the cusp of finalising a new agreement regarding industrial carbon pricing, potentially increasing the fee to £130 per tonne by 2040. This shift not only alters the landscape of Canada’s climate strategy but also paves the way for the expansion of oil production and the construction of new pipeline projects to the British Columbia coast. Sources from both the provincial and federal governments have confirmed that negotiations have intensified, especially in light of Alberta’s pressing political climate and the upcoming secession referendum.
New Carbon Pricing Accord on the Horizon
According to insiders, the new accord is expected to play a crucial role in shaping the future of Alberta’s energy sector. The proposed increase in the carbon price, which currently stands at £95 per tonne, has been a contentious issue, particularly regarding the timeline for achieving the £130 target. Prime Minister Mark Carney is anticipated to unveil the details of this agreement at a cabinet meeting scheduled for Wednesday, with plans for him to visit Alberta shortly thereafter to formalise the announcement.
During a recent meeting in Ottawa, Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith engaged in discussions that highlighted the urgency surrounding the carbon pricing timeline. Smith expressed that the speed of the increment was a focal point of their talks, indicating a shared recognition of the importance of finalising the deal.
Implications for National Energy Policy
This proposed agreement represents a marked departure from the stringent carbon pricing policies of the previous Liberal administration, which aimed for a £170 per tonne fee by 2030. The potential easing of these standards has raised concerns among environmental advocates who argue that such changes may severely limit emissions reductions in heavy industry. Rick Smith, president of the Canadian Climate Institute, noted that maintaining the proposed timeline would result in minimal to no emissions reductions, calling the 2040 target “too late” for meaningful climate action.

The renewed focus on industrial carbon pricing comes at a time when Alberta’s separatist sentiments are gaining momentum, largely driven by perceptions of federal policies that hinder the province’s energy sector. Carney has pointed to the memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed last year as evidence of improving federal-provincial relations and a step towards mutual benefit. However, the urgency to solidify this new agreement is palpable, as industry stakeholders express growing frustration with the pace of progress.
Prospects for Pipeline Development
The new accord would also facilitate Alberta’s plans to submit an application for a new pipeline project to Ottawa’s Major Projects Office by July 1. The provincial government has long advocated for a “world-class Indigenous co-owned pipeline” to the West Coast, aiming to leverage opportunities for transportation to Asian markets. While the government is exploring various routes, including a northern route to Prince Rupert, B.C., there is also consideration of a southern route that may encounter fewer environmental challenges.
In Ottawa, discussions about pipeline approvals are evolving, with new proposals suggesting that the federal cabinet may green-light projects before completing all technical assessments. This shift in approach is designed to enhance investor confidence and expedite crucial infrastructure projects.
The Pathways Project: A Carbon Capture Endeavour
A key component of Alberta’s energy strategy is the ambitious Pathways project, which aims to establish a comprehensive carbon capture and storage system. This initiative is backed by some of Alberta’s largest oil producers and could become a cornerstone of the province’s plan to meet increased oil production targets while addressing environmental concerns. Officials have indicated that the success of the Pathways project hinges on the timely implementation of new carbon pricing measures.

Premier Smith has emphasised the importance of getting the Pathways project off the ground, positioning it as a vital element in navigating the dual challenges of increasing production and adhering to environmental standards.
Why it Matters
This emerging agreement on carbon pricing and the prospective pipeline developments signify a pivotal moment in Canada’s energy policy. As Alberta grapples with separatist sentiments and federal pressures, the ability to balance economic growth with environmental responsibility will be crucial. The outcomes of these negotiations could reshape Canada’s energy landscape, influencing not only provincial relations but also the nation’s approach to climate change and energy independence in the years to come.