Andy Burnham’s improving poll ratings have intensified speculation that the prime minister could be weighing an early general election, despite repeated indications that the government has no immediate plans to call one. Labour has stayed ahead of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in party approval since Mr Burnham took office in July, while support for Zack Polanski’s Green Party has also weakened.
The political temptation is obvious. So are the dangers.
Holborn and St Pancras becomes an early-election proxy contest
The forthcoming by-election in Holborn and St Pancras is being closely watched for what it might reveal about the strength of Mr Burnham’s government and the condition of the wider opposition. Labour sources told The Independent last week that the contest to replace Sir Keir Starmer was being treated as a potential rehearsal for an early general election.
Sir Keir announced earlier this month that he would leave Parliament after standing down as prime minister and Labour leader to clear the way for Mr Burnham. Mr Polanski has confirmed that he will stand for the Greens in the by-election next month, setting up a direct contest between the governing party and its principal challenger on the left.
The result will be dissected for signs of whether Labour has rebuilt its coalition of progressive voters or whether the Greens can continue making inroads into its former strongholds. A comfortable Labour victory could strengthen the case for an early election, particularly if Reform and the Conservatives remain divided. A poor result, however, would expose the limits of the government’s post-leadership bounce. It would also give Mr Curtice’s warnings far greater weight.
Other parties are already preparing for the possibility of a national vote. Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey has revealed that a manifesto working group has been established, acknowledging that the political machinery is shifting into election mode.
“We don’t normally do it this early,” Mr Davey told The Guardian.
Reform sources have suggested that Mr Burnham could be persuaded to act depending on the outcome in London. They told The i that if Labour’s candidate defeats Mr Polanski “convincingly”, the Green leader could be written off as a “dud”, reinforcing the view within Labour that the progressive vote is coalescing around the government once again.
A Conservative source offered a similar assessment, arguing that a Labour victory over the Greens could “tempt” the prime minister to seek an early mandate.
“[Burnham’s] whole thing is to consolidate the left,” the source said. “If he continues to constrict the Green vote then it will tempt him into an early election whilst the right remains split.”
