In the wake of the upcoming Makerfield by-election, Labour’s landscape may be on the verge of a seismic shift. If Andy Burnham secures victory on Thursday, a series of rapid developments could see him ascend to the role of Prime Minister sooner rather than later. The question is not just about whether he can win; it’s about the political manoeuvring that might follow and how it could reshape the party’s future.
The Quick Route: Burnham’s Immediate Ascendancy
The Labour Party’s regulations stipulate that any MP aiming to challenge a sitting leader, currently Keir Starmer, must garner support from a minimum of 20% of the parliamentary party—81 MPs at present—as well as endorsements from at least 5% of local branches or three affiliated groups, including two unions. Should Burnham emerge victorious in Makerfield and Starmer choose to resign—perhaps under pressure from a wave of cabinet resignations—the process could be remarkably swift.
In this scenario, Burnham would need to secure the requisite endorsements, but with a coronation on the horizon, this could unfold in a matter of days. The party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) would likely expedite the timetable, allowing for a seamless transition without necessitating a full membership vote.
A Slightly Slower Scenario: The Timed Departure
Alternatively, if Starmer opts for a more structured exit, possibly following a diplomatic mission to the NATO summit in Ankara, Burnham’s rise could take a few weeks. Starmer has publicly declared his intention to contest any leadership challenge, but his resolve may waver if there is a palpable groundswell of support for Burnham among Labour MPs or if key cabinet members indicate they will resign unless he steps down.
While this approach might afford Burnham a bit more time to prepare for the leadership role, the urgency of replacing a Prime Minister cannot be overstated. Should Starmer decide to take a more protracted route, Labour could find itself in a precarious position while awaiting a resolution.
The Long Game: A Full Leadership Contest
If the leadership race draws in other contenders—most notably Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who has already signalled his intention to run—Labour would be compelled to navigate a full membership vote. This process, dictated by the NEC, could stretch over several weeks, lengthening the timeline considerably.
Past contests provide a blueprint for timing: the 2020 leadership election spanned three months, while the more recent deputy leadership contest following Angela Rayner’s resignation was condensed to about six and a half weeks. Given the urgency surrounding the selection of a new Prime Minister, Labour officials might opt to further compress the timeline, yet they must balance expediency with the necessity of providing candidates a fair platform to present their visions.
Political Calculations and Consequences
The dynamics of this potential leadership challenge extend beyond individual ambitions; they reflect wider tensions within Labour. As the party grapples with its identity and strategy leading into future elections, the stakes are high. A leadership change could not only alter the party’s direction but also impact its standing with the electorate.
Moreover, the outcomes of the Makerfield by-election and subsequent leadership manoeuvrings will likely resonate throughout the UK political landscape, potentially influencing voter sentiments as the nation approaches the next general election.
Why it Matters
The implications of Andy Burnham’s potential ascension to the premiership are profound. As Labour seeks to solidify its position in a rapidly changing political environment, the decisions taken in the coming weeks will shape not just the party’s future but the very fabric of the UK’s governance. With a leadership change on the horizon, the political narrative is poised for a dramatic shift, one that could redefine the Labour Party and its role in British politics for years to come.
