Australia is bracing for a profound demographic and economic transformation, with the government’s latest intergenerational report warning that deaths will soon outnumber births. Released on Sunday, the seventh Intergenerational Report (IGR) outlines a future defined by an ageing population, slower economic growth, and the uncertain promise of artificial intelligence. Treasurer Jim Chalmers, speaking at the Australian National University to coincide with the release, described the analysis as illuminating a path through a period of unprecedented global volatility. “No previous IGR has contended with global challenges this great, with politics this fraught, or a future less certain,” Chalmers stated, emphasising that while risks are serious, Australia’s opportunities remain vast.
The report’s most stark projection is a natural population decline, with falling fertility rates expected to result in more deaths than births by the 2060s. This milestone, already familiar to advanced economies like Japan, Germany, Italy, and the Republic of Korea, signals a fundamental shift in Australia’s demographic trajectory. The population is projected to grow at a sluggish 0.9% annually, compared to the historical rate of 1.4%, accompanied by a shrinking share of working Australians. This demographic contraction will place immense strain on the budget and social services, particularly healthcare and aged care, as the ratio of taxpayers to retirees narrows. The report underscores that maintaining living standards will require a delicate balance of policy interventions to support families and encourage workforce participation.
Central to the government’s economic outlook is the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence, which the
