Barclays has drawn sharp criticism following the circulation of a research note that seemingly encourages investors to capitalise on the impending super El Niño, a climate phenomenon expected to exacerbate food insecurity for millions globally. The note highlights potential profit opportunities amidst the chaos, raising ethical concerns at a time when countries in the Global South are bracing for catastrophic impacts from this weather event.
Super El Niño: A Threat to Millions
The super El Niño, characterised by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, poses a formidable threat, particularly to small-holder farmers in vulnerable regions. Currently, more than 100 million people could face dire food shortages as a result of this climate event, with projections indicating that up to 125 million individuals may require urgent food assistance by December. Areas like Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia are at heightened risk of famine, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network.
Critics are alarmed by Barclays’ research note, which claims that “a very strong El Niño should be viewed as a source of market dispersion rather than a uniformly negative shock.” This language suggests that while certain sectors may suffer, others could profit from the resultant shifts in global weather patterns. Such sentiments have been met with outrage from environmental advocates and political figures alike.
Ethical Concerns and Financial Opportunities
Green MP Adrian Ramsay voiced his disgust, stating, “It is grotesque that Barclays, having pumped billions into coal, oil, and gas expansion, is now looking at a global food crisis being deepened by climate breakdown and seeing a trading opportunity.” Ramsay’s comments reflect a growing sentiment that financial institutions are losing sight of their ethical responsibilities as they pursue profit in the face of human suffering.
Furthermore, a report indicates that Barclays is the largest funder of fossil fuel companies in Europe, investing a staggering $17.6 billion (£13.2 billion) last year. This investment has been linked to the very climate crisis that is fuelling the upcoming super El Niño. Jeanne Martin, head of the banking programme at ShareAction, questioned why the financial sector remains focused on profiting from such disruptions, rather than addressing the underlying causes of climate change.
In response to the backlash, a Barclays spokesperson refuted claims that the bank seeks to benefit from human suffering. They asserted that the analysis provided is independent and merely assesses the market impacts of climatic events without moral judgement.
The Human Toll of Climate Disruption
Countries in Africa, particularly those already facing conflicts and poverty, are expected to bear the brunt of the super El Niño’s effects. The event comes on the heels of significant cuts to foreign aid, which fell by 23 per cent between 2024 and 2025, further jeopardising the stability of these nations. The UN’s World Food Programme has launched a $202 million appeal aimed at protecting 8.8 million people from the impending crisis through anticipatory actions like early warning systems and financial support for farmers.
“With El Niño on the horizon, we have a narrow window to act so families are not forced into impossible choices later,” stated Carl Skau, acting executive director of the WFP. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated, as communities prepare for what may be a catastrophic food crisis.
In addition, the impact of this crisis will disproportionately affect women and girls, who are often the most vulnerable in such scenarios. According to Walter Mwasaa from CARE International, these individuals will face significant health challenges while also bearing the burden of household responsibilities. As funding for organisations like CARE decreases, the ability to respond effectively to the needs of these communities diminishes.
Why it Matters
The implications of Barclays’ actions extend far beyond financial markets; they touch the lives of millions who are already grappling with the realities of climate change. As the super El Niño looms, the ethical responsibilities of financial institutions come under scrutiny. The prioritisation of profit over humanitarian considerations exemplifies a troubling trend in the global financial system. The choices made by banks like Barclays will shape not only market dynamics but also the very survival of vulnerable populations facing an uncertain future.