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A recent investigation has unveiled a paradox in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum, revealing that areas in the UK that predominantly voted to leave the European Union have experienced a rapid increase in foreign workers since 2016. This growth comes alongside a troubling trend of economic decline in many of these regions, suggesting that the anticipated benefits of Brexit may not have materialised for Leave supporters.
Migration Trends Post-Brexit
Data from a comprehensive analysis highlights that the last decade has brought significant changes in the demographics of the workforce across the UK. After the Brexit vote, there was a notable rise in migration, particularly among health and care visa holders, culminating in a peak of 944,000 arrivals in the year ending March 2023. However, net migration has since drastically fallen as many visas expire.
Focusing specifically on Leave-voting areas, the analysis of government Pay As You Earn data reveals that the percentage of non-UK workers has increased markedly. For instance, in Wigan—where a recent by-election took place—the proportion of foreign employees rose from less than 5% in June 2016 to just under 10% by December 2024. This more than doubling contrasts with the national average, which saw a 40% increase in foreign workers during the same period.
Economic Disparities Unveiled
While Remain-voting regions, often larger urban centres, continue to host the greatest number of non-UK workers, Leave-voting areas have experienced a more pronounced relative growth. The influx of foreign labour in these regions has become increasingly visible, particularly in communities that historically had limited exposure to migrant populations.
Anand Menon, director of The UK in a Changing Europe and a professor at King’s College London, explains that the political implications of such demographic shifts can often resonate more strongly than absolute figures. “People react to change,” he stated, noting that while a large increase in central London may go unnoticed, a smaller rise in a town like Boston is more likely to attract attention and concern.
Deprivation and Economic Decline
The investigation further reveals a stark contrast in economic fortunes between Leave and Remain areas. Constituencies that supported Remain, such as Bristol Central and Cambridge, have seen substantial improvements in living conditions from 2015 to 2025. Conversely, many Leave-voting areas, including Boston and Skegness, have become relatively more deprived during the same timeframe.
This disparity should not be oversimplified as a direct consequence of Brexit. Many Leave-voting regions were already grappling with longstanding economic challenges prior to the referendum. Research indicates that immigration’s impact on wages and job prospects for native workers has been minimal. Nonetheless, the combination of Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the fallout from the war in Ukraine has exacerbated the struggles of less prosperous areas.
Shifting Crime and Health Deprivation Rankings
Further analysis of deprivation data demonstrates a widening gap between Leave and Remain constituencies in terms of health and crime. Areas with strong Leave support have seen declines in health metrics, including increased hospital admissions and higher rates of health-related benefits. Meanwhile, crime deprivation rankings have similarly revealed a concerning trend; for example, Makerfield experienced a significant drop in its relative standing in crime rankings over the past decade.
Menon cautioned against attributing all economic woes to Brexit, stating, “It’s too easy to blame Brexit for everything that’s gone wrong in the last few years; it’s not the whole story.” He emphasised the resilience of more affluent regions with skilled workforces compared to their less prosperous counterparts.
Why it Matters
The findings from this investigation underscore a complex and often contradictory reality faced by many communities in the UK following Brexit. As areas that once clamoured for independence from the EU grapple with rising foreign worker populations and increasing economic deprivation, it raises pressing questions about the long-term implications of the referendum. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for policymakers as they navigate the future of the UK’s workforce and economic landscape.
