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Recent analysis has unveiled an intriguing yet paradoxical trend in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum: areas that predominantly voted for Leave have experienced a significant increase in the number of foreign workers since 2016. This growth, however, has coincided with a relative deterioration in local economic conditions, challenging the expectations of many Leave supporters.
A Surge in Foreign Workers Post-Brexit
A comprehensive investigation reveals that the decade following the Brexit vote has not aligned with the aspirations of numerous Leave advocates. Data shows that regions with high Leave support have seen the most rapid percentage growth in foreign workers, despite facing increasing levels of deprivation.
The peak of migration into the UK occurred in the year ending March 2023, with figures reaching a staggering 944,000, particularly driven by those arriving under health and care visas. However, net migration has since declined sharply as visa expirations take effect.
An analysis of Pay As You Earn data indicates that between 2016 and the end of 2024, non-UK workers in Leave-voting areas have seen their numbers grow markedly. For instance, in Wigan—where the recent Makerfield by-election occurred—foreign employees constituted less than 5% of the workforce in June 2016. By December 2024, this figure had nearly doubled, reaching just under 10%. In contrast, the overall percentage of foreign workers across the UK increased by only 40% during the same timeframe.
The Disparity Between Leave and Remain Areas
While urban centres that leaned towards Remain continue to host the largest number of non-UK workers, it is the Leave-voting regions that have recorded the most rapid relative growth in this demographic. This phenomenon highlights a significant shift in areas that had previously been less accustomed to migrant labour.
Anand Menon, director of The UK in a Changing Europe and professor of West European politics at King’s College London, noted that the impact of immigration can be more politically charged when experienced on a local level. “An influx of 10,000 immigrants in central London may go unnoticed,” he explained, “but 200 new arrivals in a smaller town like Boston can create a palpable difference.”
Economic Deprivation: A Growing Concern
In a separate analysis, the Guardian examined deprivation data, revealing that the strongest Remain-voting constituencies, such as Bristol Central and Cambridge, have seen marked improvements from 2015 to 2025. Conversely, many Leave-voting areas like Boston and Skegness have become increasingly deprived during the same period.
This trend raises questions about the relationship between Brexit and local economic conditions. While some regions were already grappling with long-standing economic challenges prior to the referendum, the evidence suggests that areas with higher Leave votes have particularly struggled. The analysis indicates these regions have worsened in key health metrics, including increased risks of early death and higher rates of hospital admissions for severe illnesses.
A Cautionary Perspective
Despite the evident challenges, Menon warns against attributing all issues to Brexit alone. “It’s overly simplistic to lay blame for every problem on Brexit,” he cautioned. “Affluent areas with more skilled workforces have shown greater resilience. Given the context of Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine, it is not surprising that less prosperous, predominantly Leave-voting areas have faced relative decline.”
Why it Matters
The findings from this investigation underscore a complex narrative surrounding Brexit and its aftermath. While the intended benefits of leaving the EU were centred around economic independence and control over immigration, the realities reveal a stark contrast. The rise in foreign workers in Leave-voting areas, coupled with increasing deprivation, raises critical questions about the long-term socio-economic impacts of the referendum. As the UK continues to navigate this uncharted territory, understanding these local dynamics will be essential for shaping future policies and addressing the needs of affected communities.
