Alan Milburn’s latest review lays bare a stark reality: one million young people in Britain are not in education, employment or training, a symptom of years spent cutting back on early‑intervention services. The former health secretary warns that the state has slipped into firefighting mode, pouring money into dealing with the consequences of neglect rather than stopping problems before they start. With living costs soaring, the aftermath of the pandemic still lingering and rapid technological change reshaping work, the report calls for a decisive shift towards a preventive state that invests in the foundations of society.
The Roots of Disconnection
The picture Milburn paints is one of gradual erosion. Since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, successive governments have trimmed budgets across youth services, education and early‑years provision. In England, spending on youth clubs and related programmes has fallen by 76 %, a loss of roughly £1.3 billion. Thousands of clubs have shut their doors and countless social worker posts have vanished. At the same time, per‑pupil funding for schools has been frozen for fourteen years, while investment in school buildings – many of which are now grappling with the Raac, or crumbling concrete, crisis – has dropped by a quarter.
These cuts have left a generation that grew up under austerity and in the shadow of Covid feeling that the game is rigged. Only one in four young people believe everyone gets a fair chance, and many see the system as stacked against them. Milburn points out that the risk of a young person becoming NEET can often be traced back to their earliest years in preschool, when support that could have steadied their trajectory was already being withdrawn.
The Cost of Firefighting
Instead of spending modest sums up front to prevent disadvantage, the state ends up paying far more later on. For every pound the government allocates to employment support for young people, it shells out about twenty‑five pounds on benefits and related welfare costs. The NEET cohort alone is estimated to cost the economy £125 billion each year, a figure that is only set to rise without intervention.
The pattern repeats elsewhere. The dismantling of Labour’s Sure Start network – originally conceived as a family‑hub model – was sold as a money‑saving move. Yet research shows that as its funding evaporated, expenditure on looked‑after children and safeguarding surged by more than half. The money did not disappear; it simply migrated from preventive measures to crisis management, illustrating a nationwide shift from investment to reaction.
Lessons from Prevention
Evidence from other sectors demonstrates what could be gained by reversing this trend. The Health Foundation estimates that restoring the UK’s population health to the level seen in 2014 would lift GDP by 2 % and generate a £72 billion dividend for public finances. The Office for Budget Responsibility has modelled a “better health” scenario in which the national debt could be roughly 45 % of GDP lower by the 2070s, purely through upstream investment in prevention.
The NHS offers a parallel lesson. Around 40 % of its budget is spent on treating conditions that could have been avoided, with preventable illness accounting for half of GP appointments and 70 % of inpatient bed days. Years of underinvestment have left the service strained and inefficient, reinforcing the argument that money spent early yields far greater returns downstream.
A Path Forward
Milburn’s review urges the government – and in particular, Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham, who has championed the idea of a preventive state – to rebuild the foundations that have been eroded. This means redirecting resources towards early‑years services, youth centres and school maintenance, even when the fiscal climate is tight. The challenge is that the savings from such spending take years to materialise, while the costs of cutting corners are felt immediately, creating a political incentive to stick with firefighting.
Nevertheless, the alternative is to remain shackled by rising welfare bills, a struggling NHS and a labour market that leaves a generation adrift. As Milburn puts it, Britain must “grasp the nettle” and move from a reactive stance to one that nurtures the potential of its young people before they fall through the cracks.
Why it Matters
The stakes extend far beyond the job market. When a million young people are denied the chance to learn, work and contribute, the nation loses not only their immediate productivity but also the long‑term innovation, civic engagement and tax revenue they could provide. Investing now in preventive measures – from quality early‑years education to well‑maintained schools and accessible youth services – offers a chance to break the cycle of disadvantage, ease pressure on public services and secure a more prosperous, equitable future for all.
