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In the wake of Andy Burnham’s ascendance to the premiership, Labour has experienced a notable uptick in support, often referred to as the “Burnham bounce.” However, while the party’s recent success in the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election signals a positive shift, experts caution that the gains are not as substantial as they may appear. Polls reveal Labour’s standing has improved, yet formidable challenges loom as the party prepares for future electoral battles.
Polling Landscape: A Mixed Bag for Labour
Since Burnham took on the role of Prime Minister less than two weeks ago, various opinion polls have shown Labour’s support averaging in the mid-20s, marking its highest rating since early 2023. Notably, this comes as a stark contrast to the 19% recorded in late June when Keir Starmer announced his resignation. Despite this progress, the shadow of Reform UK, which is polling closely behind Labour, suggests the party still has considerable ground to cover before it can confidently approach the next general election.
Historically, new leaders tend to enjoy a boost in popularity. For instance, Gordon Brown saw a seven-point rise following his takeover from Tony Blair in 2007, while Boris Johnson benefitted from a six-point increase upon succeeding Theresa May in 2019. The only exception in recent memory was Liz Truss, whose brief tenure was marred by national tragedy, leading to a stagnation in Conservative support.
The Burden of Inheritance
Burnham’s elevation comes with a significant electoral burden. The 19% approval rating left by Starmer is the lowest of any Prime Minister in mid-term history, even trailing behind Truss’s 23% when she resigned after a mere 45 days. Given this context, it is unsurprising that Burnham’s relatively favourable reputation has provided Labour with a short-term lift. However, even with the recent bounce, Labour’s average polling figures remain the lowest for any newly appointed mid-term Prime Minister, far from the 35% they garnered in the 2024 election.
Despite these challenges, Labour’s decisive victory in the recent Manchester mayoral by-election—with 47% of first preferences—reflects a significant improvement from the 24% achieved in May’s local elections. This result even surpasses Labour’s performance in the 2024 general election, indicating a potential resurgence in local voter confidence.
Reform’s Struggles: A Silver Lining for Labour
Although Labour’s recent polling uptick is noteworthy, Burnham has opted against calling an early election, primarily due to Reform UK’s narrow lead. The party has recently faced scrutiny over the legality of its funding sources and allegations concerning the conduct of its leader, Nigel Farage, who has announced his candidacy for a by-election following a wave of controversies. This turmoil appears to have taken a toll, with Reform’s polling dropping from 27% to 24% after Farage’s announcement, marking the lowest support for the party in over a year.
In the Manchester by-election, Reform’s support fell significantly, down nine points from its tally in May’s local elections. The emergence of a splinter group, Restore Britain, which secured almost 9% of the Manchester vote, has further compounded Reform’s difficulties, overshadowing the Conservatives in the process.
The Political Landscape: A Shift in Voter Preferences
The “Burnham bounce” has predominantly resulted in Labour reclaiming support from both the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats, both of which have seen a decline of two percentage points since Burnham’s uncontested leadership victory. The Green Party, which had attracted disillusioned Labour voters in recent months, now finds itself at a precarious 11%, down four points from when Starmer announced his departure.
The data shows that 67% of voters who supported Labour in the 2024 election now express their intention to vote for the party again, a notable increase from 57% prior to Starmer’s exit. Labour is also losing fewer voters to Reform, a trend mirrored by the Conservatives, who have seen a resurgence to 20%—their highest rating since spring.
Despite this renewed hope for Labour under Burnham’s leadership, the path to electoral success remains fraught with challenges. The party must work diligently to win back working-class, pro-Brexit voters, a demographic that was once considered its core support but has since gravitated towards Reform.
Why it Matters
The political landscape in the UK is rapidly evolving, and Burnham’s leadership could signal a shift in Labour’s fortunes. However, the party’s ability to translate this bounce into sustained support will depend on its capacity to address pressing policy challenges and reconnect with disaffected voters. The next few months are critical; Labour’s prospects for the 2029 general election hinge not only on Burnham’s popularity but also on tangible progress that resonates with the electorate. The stakes are high, and the clock is ticking.