In a decisive move to reshape his political future, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has publicly announced his intention to run for the Labour leadership, responding to the urgent need for change within his party as it faces a challenging by-election in Makerfield. Allies assert that distancing himself from the current leadership is essential to counteract the “toxic” perception surrounding Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour, which has left the constituency’s outcome hanging in the balance.
Burnham’s Leadership Bid
During a special edition of BBC’s Question Time dedicated to the Makerfield by-election, Burnham confirmed his ambitions to replace Starmer as Labour leader and potentially serve as Prime Minister, should he secure election to Westminster. His announcement comes amid a backdrop of low polling figures for Labour, which have raised concerns among his supporters about the viability of winning the Makerfield seat against Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon.
An ally of Burnham indicated that the mayor’s statement was a strategic move aimed at revitalising Labour’s image. “Focus groups show that merely suggesting a change in Labour’s approach isn’t sufficient. A clear declaration was necessary,” they explained.
The Toxic Labour Brand
Feedback from local residents reveals a pervasive discontent with the Labour brand in Makerfield. “The Labour brand is not just bad, it’s toxic,” one MP noted. They emphasised that Burnham himself is not viewed negatively; rather, the party’s current leadership is dragging down its prospects. Another supporter, Kim Johnson, MP for Liverpool Riverside, echoed this sentiment, stating that Burnham’s bid to oust Starmer could significantly bolster his campaign.
The urgency of the situation is underscored by the looming by-election on 18 June, with Labour insiders admitting that previous attempts to discredit Kenyon have not resonated with voters. “It’s reminiscent of the lessons we failed to learn after Brexit. Local sentiments do not align with national narratives,” one Labour MP remarked.
Polling Dynamics and Local Sentiment
Recent polling data from Survation suggests a slight advantage for Burnham, showing him with a 10-point lead over Kenyon immediately following the Question Time debate. However, this lead remains precarious, particularly with the emergence of the Restore Britain party, whose candidate Rebecca Shepherd is reportedly pulling around 8% of the vote. This could inadvertently assist Burnham by fragmenting the right-wing vote, providing Labour with a potential lifeline in a tightly contested race.
Campaigners for Reform UK point out that Kenyon’s appeal as a local candidate who resonates with constituents enhances his standing in the contest. One source from the Reform campaign noted, “Robert is well-liked and known in the community, which makes this election very competitive.”
Starmer’s Response and Future Implications
In light of Burnham’s announcement, a spokesperson for Downing Street defended Starmer’s leadership, highlighting the government’s initiatives aimed at addressing pressing issues such as the cost of living and healthcare. The spokesperson reiterated that the Labour Party has established procedures for leadership challenges, which they believe have not been invoked.
Starmer’s resolve to maintain his position adds another layer of complexity to the already charged political atmosphere. Should Burnham succeed in the by-election and subsequently challenge for leadership, it could signify a pivotal moment for the Labour Party as it seeks to redefine its identity and reconnect with disenchanted voters.
Why it Matters
The implications of Burnham’s declaration extend far beyond the Makerfield by-election. It reflects broader anxieties within the Labour Party as it grapples with its public image and internal dynamics. Voter sentiment in constituencies like Makerfield could shape the future direction of Labour, dictating whether it can reclaim lost ground or whether it will continue to falter under the weight of a diminishing brand. As Burnham positions himself as a potential harbinger of change, his journey will serve as a litmus test for the party’s resilience and adaptability in a rapidly evolving political landscape.
