Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, is gearing up for a critical byelection in Makerfield that could reshape the Labour Party’s future. With Reform UK recently securing over 50% of the local election vote, Burnham’s path to victory appears fraught with challenges. Allies of the mayor have raised concerns about the uphill battle he faces as he prepares to potentially represent Labour in a contest likely scheduled for around 18 June.
A Tight Race Ahead
Burnham is expected to be confirmed as Labour’s candidate for the north-west constituency later this week. However, the political landscape is shifting, with polling suggesting he holds only a slender lead over Reform UK. The party, led by Nigel Farage, is poised to leverage hot-button issues such as immigration and Brexit in their campaign strategy, seeking to capitalise on Labour’s internal disputes regarding the UK’s European Union membership.
“This byelection is crucial not just for Labour’s immediate fate but also for the long-term prospects of the party,” said one ally, underscoring the stakes involved. If Burnham succeeds, he may pose a significant challenge to Keir Starmer’s leadership, which has come under scrutiny from within the party. Conversely, a loss would leave Starmer weakened, lacking a clear successor amid a backdrop of dissent from MPs.
Competing Pressures
The urgency of the situation is heightened by Labour’s internal debates, particularly surrounding the EU. Recent remarks from Wes Streeting, another potential leadership contender, advocating for a pro-EU stance, have intensified divisions. Streeting’s comments were met with criticism from Labour’s culture secretary, Lisa Nandy, who labelled them “odd,” highlighting the party’s struggle to unify on critical issues.
As the byelection approaches, Burnham must navigate the conflicting pressures of appealing both to Labour’s pro-EU base and the constituents of Makerfield, 65% of whom voted to leave in the 2016 referendum. The Reform UK campaign is likely to exploit this divide, placing Burnham in a precarious position.
Implications for Leadership Dynamics
Pollsters note that Burnham’s personal popularity in Greater Manchester could give him a fighting chance despite the challenging demographics of the seat. Luke Tryl, director of the research group More in Common, commented on the dual forces at play: “The demographics of the seat point towards a Reform win, yet Burnham’s personal appeal offers him a viable path.”
The outcome of this byelection may not only dictate Burnham’s political future but also significantly impact Starmer’s leadership. If Labour fails to secure a win, the party could face existential questions about its viability moving forward.
Starmer, meanwhile, has reportedly been reflecting on his future in light of the byelection, suggesting that his decision to stand for leadership again may depend on its outcome. Friends indicate that the Prime Minister’s previously steadfast resolve is softening, as he weighs the potential ramifications of Burnham’s candidacy.
Why it Matters
The Makerfield byelection represents a pivotal moment for Labour, with far-reaching implications for its leadership and policy direction. A victory for Burnham could revitalise the party’s standing and provide a mandate for change, while a loss may signal a deeper crisis within Labour, challenging its very existence as a credible force in British politics. As the political stakes rise, all eyes will be on Makerfield, where the results could redefine the landscape of British governance for years to come.
