Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, is gearing up for a critical byelection in Makerfield, a contest that could determine not only his political trajectory but the future of the Labour Party itself. Allies warn of the formidable challenge posed by Reform UK, a party that secured over 50% of the vote in recent local elections, leaving Burnham in a precarious position as he prepares to defend a seat that could reshape the political landscape.
A Race Against Time
With the byelection expected to take place on or around 18 June, Burnham is anticipated to be confirmed as Labour’s candidate later this week. The stakes could not be higher; a victory for Burnham would bolster Labour’s position and potentially challenge the leadership of Keir Starmer, while a loss could inflict severe damage on Starmer’s authority and the party’s viability.
Burnham spent the weekend campaigning in Ashton-in-Makerfield alongside Lucy Powell, Labour’s deputy leader, as he sought to galvanise support. However, insiders suggest his path to victory is fraught with obstacles. Polls indicate a tight race, with Burnham barely ahead in a constituency that has shown increasing support for Reform UK. One ally succinctly captured the gravity of the situation: “I would give Andy a 45% chance of winning, maybe a bit more than that.”
The Immigration and Brexit Conundrum
As Burnham navigates this political minefield, the looming spectre of immigration and Brexit is likely to dominate the campaign discourse. Reform UK is poised to leverage the ongoing Labour infighting regarding the party’s stance on rejoining the EU, a prospect that could alienate both traditional Labour supporters and prospective voters in Makerfield, where 65% backed Brexit in 2016.
The tension escalated over the weekend when fellow Labour MP Wes Streeting suggested that Britain should consider rejoining the EU. His comments were met with swift criticism from other party leaders, including Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy, who dismissed the idea as “odd.” As Labour’s position remains muddled, Burnham finds himself caught between a pro-EU party membership and a constituency that largely opposes further integration with Europe.
A Leadership in Flux
The dynamics surrounding the Labour leadership are becoming increasingly volatile. Should Burnham secure a decisive victory in Makerfield, it could precipitate a major shift, potentially leading to a leadership challenge against Keir Starmer. Sources close to the Prime Minister revealed that while Starmer publicly maintains his resolve to lead, he is privately contemplating the implications of a loss, which could compel him to reconsider his position.
Burnham’s success or failure in the byelection will have profound consequences for Starmer’s leadership. Should Labour falter, the party risks losing its grip on the political narrative, leaving it vulnerable to further challenges from Reform UK and others. Starmer’s allies are quietly acknowledging the precariousness of his leadership, with discussions suggesting that he may delay any definitive stance on his future until after the byelection results are in.
The Stakes for Labour and Beyond
As the campaign intensifies, the importance of this byelection extends far beyond local politics. It represents a litmus test for Labour’s relevance in a rapidly changing political environment. Should Burnham fail to secure a victory, the implications for the party’s future could be dire, forcing a reckoning within Labour about its direction, policies, and leadership.
Why it Matters
The Makerfield byelection serves as a pivotal moment not only for Andy Burnham and the Labour Party but for the broader political landscape in the UK. With pressing issues like immigration and Brexit at the forefront, the outcome may redefine party loyalties and influence the direction of future policies. A loss for Labour could signify a devastating blow to its credibility, while a win might rekindle hopes for the party’s resurgence in national politics. As the clock ticks down to the vote, all eyes will be on Makerfield, where the stakes have never been higher.
