As the political landscape shifts, Andy Burnham’s ambitions to reclaim a seat in Westminster have intensified following the announcement of a byelection in Makerfield. With Labour MP Josh Simons stepping aside, the stage is set for Burnham to challenge not only for the constituency but potentially for the party leadership itself. However, he must first receive the green light from Labour’s national executive committee (NEC), a crucial hurdle that could define both his future and that of the party.
The Path to Makerfield
Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, expressed his desire to return to Parliament, stating he aims to “make politics work properly for people.” This statement underscores a broader sentiment within the Labour ranks: a growing dissatisfaction with current leadership under Keir Starmer and a yearning for effective representation. The byelection, triggered by Simons’ resignation, could see Burnham stepping into a role that not only revitalises his political career but also reshapes the party’s direction.
For the byelection to proceed, the Labour chief whip must initiate the process by moving the writ in Parliament. Once this is accomplished, the election must be held within 21 to 27 working days, typically on a Thursday. Therefore, if the writ is moved soon, voters could head to the polls on either 18 or 25 June.
Assessing Burnham’s Chances
Burnham’s prospects in Makerfield are precarious. The Labour majority in the constituency dwindled to just 5,399 votes in the last election, and recent local elections saw the Reform UK party capturing all wards within the area. This raises the stakes for Burnham, who must not only secure the NEC’s approval but also galvanise local support.
Polls indicate that Burnham is a favoured candidate among the Labour membership; a Compass survey revealed that 42% of members would prefer him as leader if given the choice, dwarfing the 11% support for Wes Streeting. However, the NEC’s previous decisions, which blocked Burnham from contesting in previous byelections, loom large over his aspirations.
The Leadership Challenge Landscape
Should Burnham secure a seat, the pathway to challenging Starmer for leadership is complex. At least 81 MPs, constituting 20% of Labour’s parliamentary group, are required to back a leadership bid. If Burnham garners this support, the contest would then be put to party members, who rank candidates by preference. A candidate must achieve over 50% of first-choice votes to win, with subsequent elimination rounds determining the victor.
The current field of potential challengers remains uncertain. Although names such as Streeting, Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband, and Alistair Carmichael are circulating, none have formally declared their intentions as of now. The leadership process tends to favour candidates who can unify various factions within the party, which could work to Burnham’s advantage if he can consolidate support from the soft left.
The Stakes for Starmer
Keir Starmer’s position is precarious; if he opts to stay, he will automatically be on the ballot as the incumbent. Yet, his leadership has faced scrutiny, and the absence of clear support could lead to a significant challenge. Should he choose to step down, the party would enter a more complicated phase, with rules requiring candidates to secure backing from 5% of either constituency Labour parties or affiliated trade unions before being eligible for the ballot.
In the event of a leadership change, the winner would seamlessly assume the role of Prime Minister, provided they maintain the confidence of the House of Commons.
Why it Matters
The outcome of Burnham’s potential candidacy in the Makerfield byelection could have far-reaching implications for Labour. A win could not only elevate him into a crucial parliamentary role but also ignite a leadership challenge that could reshape the party’s vision and strategy. With growing discontent towards Starmer’s leadership, the coming weeks may mark a pivotal moment in Labour’s history, as factions within the party grapple for direction amidst a turbulent political climate. Burnham’s ambition, therefore, is not merely a personal quest; it encapsulates the broader struggles and aspirations of a party at a crossroads.
