In an unusual turn of events, California is gearing up for its most substantial influx of juvenile great white sharks in a decade. As these young predators make their way northward from warmer waters in Mexico, researchers warn beachgoers not to panic. Instead, they assure the public that these sharks have evolved to ignore humans, who are decidedly not on their menu.
Surge in Shark Sightings Expected
The anticipated rise in great white shark sightings along the California coastline is linked to the intensifying El Niño phenomenon, which has altered ocean temperatures. This year, juvenile sharks—ranging in size from 6 to 9 feet—are migrating closer to shore to feed on local fish and squid. Dr Chris Lowe, director of the Shark Lab at California State University Long Beach, has observed that during previous strong El Niño events, such as in 2015, the number of sharks off California’s coast doubled, with many establishing nurseries in regions like Monterey Bay.
Dr Lowe, who has dedicated two decades to studying white shark behaviour using drones and tracking data, reassures the public that despite the increase in shark numbers, the risk to humans remains exceptionally low. “Humans don’t look like prey, they don’t sound like prey,” he explains. “If it doesn’t feel or seem like food, they simply ignore it.”
The Reality of Shark Incidents
To put the numbers in perspective, California has recorded only 250 shark incidents since 1950, resulting in a mere 17 fatalities. That translates to about 2.5 deaths per decade—a statistic that has remained quite stable. Even during peak shark activity, like this summer is projected to be, the likelihood of a shark bite is exceedingly rare.
Researchers at Lowe’s lab have conducted extensive studies on shark behaviour in relation to recreational water activities. They recorded sounds made by surfers, swimmers, and kayakers and played these back to sharks in their natural habitats. The results were revealing: while sharks showed little interest in the sounds made by surfers or kayakers, they exhibited curiosity towards swimmers—likely due to the splashing noises created by arms and legs.
“Our conclusion is that sharks can distinguish between different types of humans,” Dr Lowe states. “Because we don’t smell, sound, or look like food, they don’t consider us prey.”
Comparing Global Shark Behaviour
While California’s shark population is on the rise, the situation is markedly different in places like Florida, where reef sharks, particularly blacktips, are more common. In 2025, Florida reported 11 incidents of unprovoked bites, which accounted for 44% of the total in the United States. This discrepancy highlights the species dynamics at play; as Gavin Naylor, director of the Florida Program for Shark Research at the University of Florida, points out, “A white shark is as different from a blacktip shark as a kangaroo is from a dog.”
Australia presents another contrast, where larger sharks are often found in coastal waters frequented by humans. Recent spikes in shark attacks there have been attributed to both bull sharks and white sharks. Warmer ocean temperatures are driving these species closer to populated areas, raising the potential for human encounters.
Understanding Shark Behaviour and Safety
Despite the inherent danger posed by any wild animal, experts like Dr Lowe stress that the risk of shark attacks is minimal. While unprovoked attacks can occur due to factors like mistaken identity, Lowe surmises that sharks may learn quickly from their experiences. “Maybe the sharks that mistakenly bite people haven’t encountered them before,” he speculates. “They just don’t make mistakes often.”
For those venturing into the ocean this summer, Lowe’s advice has evolved over the years. “Two decades ago, I would have said any shark larger than a person could be a potential threat,” he recalls. However, armed with years of data, he now swims in close proximity to great whites without fear. “The data we’ve collected shows that they get curious but ultimately turn away when they realise we are not prey.”
Why it Matters
The increase in juvenile great white shark sightings this summer serves as a reminder of the delicate balance between humans and marine life. As climate change continues to alter oceanic environments, understanding the behaviour of these apex predators becomes crucial for both conservation efforts and public safety. By fostering a more informed and less fearful relationship with sharks, we can coexist with these magnificent creatures while ensuring beachgoers remain safe in the water. This summer’s shark season is not just about the sharks returning; it’s about encouraging a narrative that respects wildlife while alleviating unfounded fears.
