Canada’s population has experienced a notable decrease, with a decline of approximately 55,000 individuals in the first quarter of 2026. This marks the third consecutive quarterly drop and is primarily attributed to the federal government’s revised immigration objectives aimed at reducing the influx of temporary residents. As of April 1, 2026, the national population stands at 41.4 million, a decline of 0.5 per cent from the previous year, when the figure was about 41.6 million.
Temporary Residents See Significant Reductions
Statistics Canada revealed that the number of temporary residents has diminished by around 118,000 in the first quarter of this year, representing a 4.4-per-cent decline over the past three months. Currently, temporary residents account for 2.56 million people, which is roughly 6.1 per cent of the total population. This figure is a stark contrast to late 2024, when temporary residents peaked at 3.15 million, constituting 7.6 per cent of the population.
The Canadian population saw robust growth from 2022 to 2024, primarily driven by the previous Liberal government’s push to fill job vacancies as pandemic restrictions eased. However, public sentiment shifted, as many Canadians began associating the increased number of newcomers with rising housing costs and other social challenges. In response, the current government, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, initially resisted altering its immigration framework but subsequently implemented several changes in 2024 and 2025. These modifications made it more challenging for international students and temporary foreign workers to enter and remain in Canada.
Tighter Immigration Policies Impact Permanent Residency
Permanent residency admissions have also seen a sharp decline, with approximately 83,149 individuals granted permanent residency between January and April 2026. This figure represents a 20.2 per cent drop compared to the same period last year. The federal government’s current target for permanent residency is set at 380,000 individuals annually, which accounts for just under 1 per cent of the total population. Analysts have noted that these reduced immigration targets are influencing economic metrics, potentially acting as a brake on overall growth.
In a report released by the C.D. Howe Institute, economists Don Drummond and Parisa Mahboubi highlighted that sustained economic improvement under moderate immigration levels would necessitate stronger productivity, increased labour force participation, and extended working hours. Similarly, Prime Minister Mark Carney has pointed to the link between the Canadian economy’s struggles—evidenced by two consecutive declines in GDP—and the government’s decision to tighten immigration policies. Additional factors, such as stringent U.S. tariffs affecting key sectors, further complicate the economic landscape.
Natural Population Growth Nears Zero
Statistics Canada also reported that the natural change in the population—calculated as the difference between births and deaths—remained almost flat in the first quarter of 2026, with approximately 155 more deaths than births. Typically, winter months see a decrease in births and an increase in mortality. Historically, Canada has maintained positive natural population growth on an annual basis; however, projections indicate this could shift soon.
Bank of Montreal senior economist Robert Kavcic has forecast that Canada may witness a negative natural population change for the first time in 2028, which he argues will have considerable economic ramifications. Kavcic emphasised that demographic trends are difficult to reverse, warning that declining fertility rates in regions such as Latin America and Asia might lead Canada to compete for a limited pool of quality immigrants.
Why it Matters
The ongoing decline in Canada’s population is a significant issue with far-reaching implications. The government’s shift towards more restrictive immigration policies not only affects the immediate demographic landscape but may also hinder economic growth prospects. As Canada grapples with the potential for a negative natural population change, the challenge of attracting and retaining talent becomes increasingly urgent. This evolving situation underscores the importance of carefully balancing immigration policies to ensure that they meet the needs of both the economy and society, particularly in a nation that has historically relied on immigration to fuel its growth.
