Prime Minister Mark Carney is embarking on a significant visit to Armenia this weekend, with a focus on bolstering trade and investment in Europe while discussing defence strategies in light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The trip, which takes place from Saturday to Monday, coincides with the European Political Community summit in Yerevan, where Carney will engage with various world leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and EU officials.
A Shift in Foreign Policy
Jean-François Ratelle, an expert in international studies at the University of Ottawa, expressed concern that Carney’s visit lacks a commitment to Canada’s historic advocacy for democracy and peace in Armenia. “We are witnessing a complete change in our foreign policy,” Ratelle remarked. He emphasised that the current approach prioritises Canada’s own interests rather than maintaining its traditional role in promoting global norms and democracy.
This marks Canada’s first participation as a non-European nation in the European Political Community meetings, which were established in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The summit will address crucial issues surrounding political cooperation, security, and infrastructure among EU member states and other invited nations, including Turkey and Iceland.
Engaging with Global Leaders
During his time in Yerevan, Carney is set to hold bilateral discussions with prominent leaders such as Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola. Achim Hurrelmann, co-director of the Centre for European Studies at Carleton University, noted that the summit serves as an essential platform for dialogue among leaders, particularly in the context of advancing defence procurement agreements with Europe.
“Meeting with EU leaders and counterparts from Ukraine and the U.K. provides an opportunity for Canada to push forward collaborative initiatives that have been discussed,” Hurrelmann stated. However, he acknowledged that transforming these discussions into actionable projects and securing private investment remains a significant challenge.
The Historical Context
The backdrop of Carney’s visit is steeped in the complex history of the Caucasus region, particularly the fraught relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Since the end of the Soviet Union, both nations have been embroiled in disputes over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, a territory that is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but has a predominantly ethnic Armenian population.
Recent escalations in the conflict saw Azerbaijan launching military operations that resulted in the displacement of over 100,000 people in 2023. Canada has previously condemned Azerbaijan’s actions and participated in EU security missions aimed at stabilising the area. However, Ratelle pointed out a significant decline in Canada’s proactive stance on promoting democracy and addressing human rights issues since Carney took office.
Prospects for Economic Collaboration
Despite the geopolitical complexities, there are opportunities for economic engagement in Armenia. As both Armenia and Azerbaijan seek to attract American investment to foster peace through shared economic interests, Ratelle underscored the potential benefits for Canada in establishing stronger ties. “If the geopolitical situation remains stable for the next decade or so, there could be tremendous opportunities for economic collaboration,” he asserted.
However, the ongoing disputes over borders and cultural heritage, coupled with Turkey’s support of Azerbaijan, complicate the path toward lasting peace and economic stability in the region. Ratelle lamented that Carney’s previous engagements, such as the G7 summit, overlooked Caucasus issues in favour of trade discussions, signalling a shift in priorities that may leave Armenia feeling isolated.
Why it Matters
Carney’s visit to Armenia is not merely a diplomatic gesture; it represents a pivotal moment for Canada’s foreign policy in a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape. As the nation seeks to build stronger economic ties with European countries and navigate complex regional conflicts, the implications of this visit could have lasting effects on Armenia’s democratic aspirations and international standing. For a country striving for stability amidst authoritarian pressures, Canada’s engagement—or lack thereof—could influence its trajectory toward a more democratic future.
