Prime Minister Mark Carney is positioning his government for a potential gain in the House of Commons by scheduling three crucial by-elections for August 31. The races will take place in the British Columbia riding of North Vancouver–Capilano, Toronto’s Beaches–East York, and Chicoutimi–Le Fjord in Quebec, a seat the Liberals are keen to wrest from Conservative control. As Parliament prepares to reconvene this autumn, the results of these contests could significantly influence the Liberals’ slender majority.
A Strategic Move for the Liberals
The announcement of the by-elections comes at a pivotal moment for the Liberals, who currently hold 174 seats—two above the threshold for a majority. With several more seats likely to become vacant before the fall session, including those held by opposition MPs, the stakes are high. The Liberal party hopes that by securing victories in these contests, particularly in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, they can solidify their standing and potentially expand their majority.
Two of the by-elections are expected to be relatively safe for the Liberals. Jonathan Wilkinson resigned his B.C. seat after being appointed as Canada’s Ambassador to the European Union, while Nathaniel Erskine-Smith stepped down from his Toronto riding earlier this month. However, the race in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord is particularly intriguing. Previously held by Conservative MP Richard Martel, the riding presents a unique opportunity for the Liberals to capitalise on Carney’s popularity, especially as the Conservatives struggle in the polls.
The Competitive Landscape in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord
Polling analyst Éric Grenier notes that Chicoutimi–Le Fjord is currently regarded as a toss-up among the Liberals, Conservatives, and Bloc Québécois. This seat has a history of shifting allegiances, having been occupied by the Bloc from 2004 to 2011, then swinging to the NDP during the 2011 ‘Orange Wave’, before ultimately landing with the Liberals in 2015. Martel’s recent appointment to the Senate by Carney may have set the stage for a competitive race, as the Liberals seek to leverage a potential dip in Conservative support.
“It’s actually a chance to pick up a seat,” expressed Grenier, indicating that the Liberal strategy appears to factor in the recent Senate appointment. A Liberal victory in this heavily francophone riding would signal a resurgence of Liberal strength in Quebec, despite concerns regarding Carney’s previous missteps in engaging with the province.
Implications for Opposition Parties
The anticipated by-elections come against a backdrop of ongoing challenges for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who has seen four MPs cross the floor to join the Liberals since last fall. If the Liberals manage to secure one or more of these seats, it would not only bolster their position but also deal a significant blow to the Conservatives’ credibility and cohesion.
While the Liberals have targeted three by-elections, they are also strategically navigating other potential vacancies. With former environment minister Steven Guilbeault expected to resign later this summer, the Liberals must win at least one of the by-elections to maintain a majority. Additionally, the expected departures of former NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice and Saskatchewan Conservative MP Cathay Wagantall could temporarily reduce the opposition ranks, potentially benefiting the Liberals.
The Candidates and Their Prospects
The Liberal Party has swiftly named candidates for all three ridings. In North Vancouver–Capilano, Braeden Caley, formerly Carney’s deputy chief of staff, will represent the party, while in Beaches–East York, Tanveer Shahnawaz, who previously managed Erskine-Smith’s constituency office, steps into the fray. The candidate for Chicoutimi–Le Fjord is Daniel Gobeil, a dairy farmer and former president of a provincial milk producers’ organisation.
The Bloc has announced Caroline Dubé as their candidate in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, while the Conservatives are yet to confirm their candidates for Beaches–East York and North Vancouver–Capilano, with lawyer Stephen Curran representing them in the latter.
In Beaches–East York, Grenier predicts a strong performance from the Liberals, but he emphasizes that this contest will also serve as a litmus test for the NDP under new leader Avi Lewis. “If the NDP is ever going to win seats in Toronto again, they should be able to put up at least something in Beaches–East York,” he remarked.
Why it Matters
The outcome of these by-elections could reshape the political landscape as Canada heads into a critical parliamentary session. For the Liberals, a successful run could fortify their majority and reinforce their grip on power, while a failure may embolden the opposition and complicate their governance. With the stakes this high, all eyes will be on the results come August 31, making it a pivotal date in the Canadian political calendar.
