Prime Minister Mark Carney is strategically manoeuvring to bolster his government’s slender majority by announcing three by-elections scheduled for August 31. This includes a crucial contest in Quebec, where the Liberals aim to wrest a seat from Conservative control. The electoral battles will unfold in North Vancouver–Capilano in British Columbia, Beaches–East York in Toronto, and Chicoutimi–Le Fjord in Quebec’s Saguenay region, as the Prime Minister looks to strengthen his party’s foothold before Parliament reconvenes this autumn.
Expanding the Majority
In a statement released on Sunday, Carney laid out the details for the upcoming by-elections, which will occur in ridings that have shown historical volatility. With four additional seats poised to open up, many currently occupied by opposition MPs, these by-elections could prove pivotal for the Liberals, potentially broadening their majority ahead of the fall session.
Two of the contests are in constituencies that are considered safe for the Liberals. Jonathan Wilkinson, a former minister, resigned his B.C. seat after his appointment as Canada’s Ambassador to the European Union in April, while Nathaniel Erskine-Smith stepped down from his Toronto seat earlier this month. However, the Chicoutimi–Le Fjord riding presents a more competitive landscape. Previously held by Conservative Richard Martel since 2018, this seat has been identified as a critical opportunity for the Liberals, particularly given Carney’s rising popularity amid Conservative struggles in the polls.
Poll aggregator 338Canada currently categorises Chicoutimi–Le Fjord as a three-way race involving the Liberals, Conservatives, and Bloc Québécois. Éric Grenier, a prominent polling analyst, noted, “It’s actually a chance to pick up a seat… considering that they offered Martel a Senate seat.”
Historical Context of Chicoutimi–Le Fjord
Chicoutimi–Le Fjord has seen a shifting political allegiance over the past two decades. Once dominated by the Bloc Québécois from 2004 to 2011, it then shifted to the NDP during the Orange Wave, only to swing back to the Liberals in 2015. Martel, a popular hockey coach, was recruited by the Conservatives to capture this seat in a 2018 by-election. A Liberal victory here would not only signal the party’s resurgence in Quebec but also demonstrate resilience in the face of Carney’s perceived linguistic shortcomings and occasional missteps that have drawn criticism for being “out of touch.”
The loss of this seat would be another setback for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who has already seen four of his MPs defect to the Liberals since last fall.
The Strategic Landscape Ahead
In April, Carney successfully secured a majority government following a trio of by-election victories, including a hard-fought contest in Terrebonne, a former Bloc bastion. These wins elevated the Liberal count to 174 seats, surpassing the 172 needed for a majority. However, with the anticipated resignation of former environment minister Steven Guilbeault later this summer, the Liberals face pressure to win at least one of the three upcoming by-elections to maintain their majority.
The political landscape is further complicated by the impending departures of former NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice and Saskatchewan Conservative MP Cathay Wagantall, both of whom will vacate their seats by the end of August. Moreover, Bloc MP Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay has also stepped down to pursue a provincial candidacy, although Carney has yet to call a by-election for this relatively secure Bloc seat. Grenier suggests that delaying these elections could allow the Liberals to enhance their majority by temporarily reducing opposition ranks.
In Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, the Liberals stand to gain an advantage by concentrating their campaign resources. Party spending limits are based on the number of ridings contested, meaning the Liberals could funnel funds from all three by-elections into the Quebec race, while the Bloc’s financial resources would be considerably constrained.
Candidate Profiles
The Liberals have announced their candidates for all three by-elections. In North Vancouver–Capilano, they have selected Braeden Caley, a former deputy chief of staff to Carney. For Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, Daniel Gobeil, a dairy farmer and former president of a milk producers’ association, will represent the party, while Tanveer Shahnawaz, who previously managed Erskine-Smith’s constituency office, will contest Beaches–East York. The Conservatives have also announced lawyer Stephen Curran for North Vancouver–Capilano, but have yet to confirm a candidate for Beaches–East York.
Grenier indicates that Beaches–East York is likely to be an easy win for the Liberals, serving as a litmus test for the NDP’s performance under their new leader, Avi Lewis. “This riding is one where they should demonstrate a respectable result,” he noted, suggesting that for the NDP to reclaim seats in Toronto, they must establish a presence in this constituency.
Why it Matters
The outcome of these by-elections is more than a mere electoral formality; it is a critical juncture for the Liberal government as it seeks to fortify its majority against a backdrop of fluctuating political fortunes. Success in these contests could not only reinforce Carney’s leadership but also signify a broader shift in voter sentiment, particularly in Quebec, where the Liberals aim to re-establish their credibility amidst a challenging political climate. As the political landscape evolves, these by-elections will provide a valuable insight into the electorate’s priorities and the opposition’s vulnerabilities, setting the stage for the next chapter in Canadian politics.
