In a calculated move to consolidate his government’s fragile majority, Prime Minister Mark Carney has announced the scheduling of three crucial by-elections for August 31. The stakes are high as the Liberals aim to claim a Quebec seat currently held by the Conservatives, alongside two others in British Columbia and Toronto. As Parliament prepares for its fall session, these contests could reshape the political landscape, particularly in light of recent political shifts and upcoming vacancies.
By-Elections on the Horizon
The by-elections will take place in three key ridings: North Vancouver–Capilano in British Columbia, Beaches–East York in Toronto, and Chicoutimi–Le Fjord in the Saguenay region of Quebec. This announcement, made via a press release on Sunday, comes as the Liberals seek to expand their current seat count in the House of Commons, which stands at 174—just above the 172 required for a majority.
Among the vacant seats, two are considered safe for the Liberals. Jonathan Wilkinson stepped down from his British Columbia seat after his appointment as Canada’s Ambassador to the European Union in April, while Nathaniel Erskine-Smith resigned his Toronto position earlier this month. However, the spotlight will be on Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, previously held by Conservative MP Richard Martel, who recently transitioned to the Senate. The riding is seen as a battleground, with current assessments indicating a competitive race involving the Liberals, Conservatives, and Bloc Québécois.
The Quebec Challenge
Chicoutimi–Le Fjord has a history of fluctuating political allegiances, making it a focal point for the Liberals. Historically, it has swung between the Bloc, NDP, and Liberals over the past two decades. After Martel’s victory in a by-election in 2018, the riding has been under Conservative control. Nevertheless, with the Liberal Party capitalising on Carney’s growing popularity amid Conservative struggles in the polls, analysts suggest the opportunity for a Liberal win is tangible.
Éric Grenier, a prominent polling analyst, remarked, “It’s actually a chance to pick up a seat,” highlighting that the Liberal strategy appears well-calculated, especially following Martel’s Senate appointment. A Liberal victory in this heavily francophone riding would not only reinforce their presence in Quebec but also serve as a barometer of Carney’s effectiveness in the province, despite some previous criticisms regarding his French language skills.
The Opposition Landscape
As the Liberals prepare for these by-elections, the opposition parties are also facing their challenges. The Conservatives are on the back foot, having lost four MPs to defections towards the Liberals since last fall. This pattern of attrition could deepen the party’s vulnerabilities in the upcoming contests.
Moreover, the political landscape is shifting with former NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice resigning his Montreal seat to pursue a provincial position, and Conservative MP Cathay Wagantall announcing her departure on the same day as the by-elections. Meanwhile, Bloc MP Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay has also vacated his seat to run for the Parti Québécois, leading to speculation that the Liberals might strategically delay calling by-elections for these additional vacancies until after the provincial elections in October.
The Liberal Strategy
Carney’s decision to move forward with by-elections in August, a time typically viewed as a quiet period for political engagement, has drawn criticism from Bloc Leader Yves François Blanchet. He labelled the timing as a “total disregard for democratic debate,” suggesting that Carney may be attempting to sidestep scrutiny of his government’s record.
In a bid to maximise resources, the Liberals have already selected their candidates for all three ridings, including Braeden Caley in North Vancouver–Capilano and Daniel Gobeil in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord. Beaches–East York will see Tanveer Shahnawaz, a former aide to Erskine-Smith, represent the Liberals. The Conservatives have yet to confirm their candidates, with their North Vancouver–Capilano contender being lawyer Stephen Curran.
Why it Matters
The outcome of these by-elections could significantly impact the Liberals’ majority status and provide a litmus test for their strength in key battlegrounds, particularly in Quebec. A successful campaign could not only bolster Carney’s position but also weaken Conservative influence, especially in light of their recent challenges. As the political climate continues to evolve, these contests will be closely monitored, revealing the shifting allegiances of Canadian voters and the potential for a new chapter in the Liberal narrative.
