As voters in Toronto and Montreal head to the polls, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party stands on the brink of securing a majority in the House of Commons. The by-elections, taking place on Monday, are pivotal as the Liberals aim to expand their seat count from 171 to at least 172—though a true majority of 173 seats would ensure their legislative agenda can advance without obstruction.
The Road to Majority
The stakes are high as the Liberals eye two Toronto ridings, both of which are traditionally considered safe Liberal territory. The party’s current seat count leaves them just shy of the majority threshold, a scenario that has ignited speculation about potential floor crossings from opposition MPs. Recently, five members from various parties have switched allegiance to the Liberals, bolstering their numbers and fuelling discussions about further defections.
Ahead of the by-elections, Conservative MP Billy Morin expressed his pride in remaining with the opposition, asserting that he would not be swayed by the Liberals’ efforts to recruit him. Other Conservative MPs have echoed his sentiment, reaffirming their commitment to the party on social media. Liberal MP Wayne Long dismissed the notion that the party is actively seeking more Conservative members, stating, “Not that I’m aware of, no.”
Quebec’s Battleground
The electoral landscape is particularly fierce in Quebec, where the by-election in Terrebonne has unfolded as a heated contest between the Bloc Québécois and the governing Liberals. Voter turnout in advance polls reached nearly 20 per cent, signalling intense engagement among constituents. The Liberals have mobilised a robust campaign, dispatching staff and key ministers, including the Prime Minister, to support their candidate, Tatiana Auguste, in a riding they narrowly won last year by just one vote.
The significance of this election was underscored by a recent Supreme Court ruling that annulled the previous Terrebonne result due to a mailing error concerning ballots. Local Bloc candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné, who previously held the seat from 2021 to 2025, is determined to reclaim her position, buoyed by positive feedback from voters. “We’ve been doing a great campaign… convincing citizens one-by-one,” she remarked, expressing optimism for a decisive outcome.
Looking Ahead: The Future of the Liberals
The other two by-elections in Toronto were necessitated by the retirements of prominent Liberal MPs Bill Blair and Chrystia Freeland, and expectations remain high that these seats will remain in Liberal hands. The recent floor crossings from the Conservative Party, which include notable figures such as Chris D’Entremont, Michael Ma, Matt Jeneroux, and Marilyn Gladu, have raised eyebrows and shifted the political landscape significantly.
To achieve a true majority, the Liberals require 173 seats, a crucial number that would allow them to push forward their legislative agenda without interference. The Speaker of the House only casts a vote in specific circumstances, typically to maintain the status quo, which means the Liberals would need to secure a firm majority to effectively govern.
Why it Matters
The outcome of these by-elections could reshape the Canadian political landscape, granting the Liberals a stronger mandate to implement their policies. A majority would not only enhance the government’s ability to legislate but also shift the balance of power in parliamentary committees, currently held by the Bloc. As political dynamics continue to evolve, the results of this electoral battle will reverberate throughout the country, influencing discussions on governance and representation for months to come.