Sir Keir Starmer’s plans to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius have hit a significant roadblock, following opposition from former US President Donald Trump. With relations between the UK and the US deteriorating, and time running out before Parliament’s prorogation, the proposed treaty may be shelved indefinitely.
Political Fallout from Trump’s Comments
In a surprising turn of events, Trump, who had previously endorsed the agreement, has now labelled it an “act of total weakness.” His latest remarks have prompted a reevaluation of the deal, which would see the UK cede ownership of the British Indian Ocean Territory in exchange for an annual lease of £101 million ($136 million) for the Diego Garcia military base.
Government officials are adamant that they are not entirely abandoning the agreement, but with Parliament set to prorogue soon, they have run out of time to push the necessary legislation through. A fresh Chagos bill is unlikely to be included in the King’s Speech scheduled for mid-May, leaving the future of the treaty in limbo.
Lack of Formal Approval from the US
One of the critical sticking points is the absence of a formal exchange of letters from the US—an essential legal step for the treaty’s enactment. A spokesperson for the UK government reiterated the strategic importance of Diego Garcia, stating, “Ensuring its long-term operational security is our priority—the entire reason for the deal.” However, they have emphasised that proceeding hinges on securing US backing.
As tensions grow, Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch expressed relief at the shelving of the deal. “That deal should never have been on the table,” she asserted, criticising the government’s judgment during a cost-of-living crisis. She further stated that the focus should be on what is right for British national interests, rather than appeasing Trump.
Expert Opinions on the Future of the Treaty
Former Foreign Office permanent secretary, Lord Simon McDonald, weighed in on the matter, asserting that the government had “no other choice” but to pause the deal. He noted that the UK’s goals were twofold: to adhere to international law and to strengthen ties with the US. “When the president of the United States is openly hostile, the government has to rethink,” he stated.
The deal, which was initially signed in May 2025 and welcomed by the US, faced further scrutiny when Trump publicly urged Starmer not to “give away Diego Garcia.” This contradiction, especially following the US Department of State’s earlier support, highlights the unpredictable nature of international relations under Trump’s influence.
Chagossians Left in Limbo
The Chagossians, who view the proposed treaty as a betrayal, remain hopeful for a resolution that would allow them to return to their ancestral home. Gavin Glover, the attorney general of Mauritius, commented that while the UK’s announcement was expected, it does not preclude the possibility of the bill being reintroduced in Parliament. He urged for clarity in negotiations between the US and UK in the coming months.
Support for shelving the deal has also emerged from Reform UK, with leader Nigel Farage calling it “great news” and urging for reparations for the Chagossians. In contrast, Liberal Democrat foreign affairs spokesman Calum Miller critiqued the handling of the situation, labelling it “totally shambolic” and warning that Trump’s erratic behaviour jeopardises military partnerships.
Why it Matters
The shelving of the Chagos deal underscores the fragility of international agreements in the face of shifting political landscapes. As the UK navigates its post-Brexit identity and seeks to maintain robust alliances, the future of the Chagos Islands remains uncertain. This situation not only affects diplomatic relations but also the rights and aspirations of the Chagossian people, who continue to seek restitution for their displacement.
