Ariel Dorfman’s latest opinion piece draws a stark comparison between Augusto Pinochet’s defeat in the 1988 Chilean plebiscite and the looming United States midterm elections of 3 November 2026, arguing that while a strongman can be toppled, the damage he leaves behind often endures.
Parallels between Pinochet’s 1988 plebiscite and the 2026 US midterms
The Chilean dictator, confident of victory, insisted he would win the vote that would decide whether he remained head of state for another eight years. On 5 October 1988, 55.9 % of compatriots told him to retire, a result he refused to accept until the Air Force General Fernando Matthei publicly acknowledged the “no” vote had won, thwarting a possible auto‑coup. Dorfman notes that the same pattern of a malignant, monomaniacal leader relying on a pliant judiciary, executive decrees, a flood of disinformation, oligarchic backing, voter suppression and total control of the armed forces is visible in the contemporary United States, where figures such as Vance urge voters to ‘give us another chance’.
The Chilean transition and its unfinished reckoning
Although Pinochet’s defeat opened the door to democracy, the country did not quickly heal. He remained commander‑in‑chief of the army for another eight years, continuing to inflict harm, and his legacy reshaped Chilean society through the dismantling of the welfare state, the spread of fear and mistrust, and the entrenchment of a savage capitalism. Despite electing a centre‑left president in 1990 and sustaining a series of administrations of varied ideology, Chile still grapples with the dictator’s shadow. In December 2025, José Antonio Kast – an admirer of Pinochet who seeks to pardon dictatorship agents – won the presidency, with 56 % of voters willing to overlook his denial of past atrocities. Dorfman, who arrived in Chile as a twelve‑year‑old in the winter of 1954, laments the erosion of the nation’s former dream of solidarity and justice.
Lessons for America’s democratic resilience
The piece warns that the United States risks repeating Chile’s mistake of celebrating a victory over authoritarianism while neglecting a thorough reckoning with the conditions that allowed such a figure to rise. The electorate’s focus on gaining congressional control must not postpone an overdue examination of the imperial arrogance, nativism, misogyny, ecological degradation, assaults on minority and workers’ rights, and the myth of exceptionalism that the Trump years amplified. Only a painful, collective self‑examination can prevent the resurgence of similar threats in the years ahead.
Why it Matters
Understanding Chile’s experience is crucial because it shows that removing a strongman from office does not automatically repair the democratic fabric; the wounds can persist for decades, shaping politics, society and collective memory. For the United States, the 2026 midterms may offer a chance to check authoritarian impulses, but without confronting the deeper historical and cultural drivers that enabled them, any triumph could be fleeting, leaving the nation vulnerable to a repeat of the very crises it seeks to overcome.
