A recent report has unveiled a troubling intersection between climate change and democracy, revealing that natural disasters increasingly disrupt elections globally. Over the past two decades, at least 94 electoral events across 52 nations have been affected by climate-related impacts, with 23 elections in 18 countries experiencing significant disruptions in 2024 alone, according to research from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.
The Rising Stakes of Climate Disruption
The analysis highlights a worrying trend where climate-induced events, such as floods, heatwaves, and wildfires, are jeopardising democratic processes, particularly in vulnerable regions like Africa and Asia. The report emphasises that as the consequences of climate change intensify, fragile democracies may face greater challenges in maintaining electoral integrity and participation.
In 2024, elections in countries such as Brazil, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Senegal were notably affected. Infrastructure damage, voter displacement, and last-minute alterations to electoral procedures became common occurrences, underscoring the urgent need for political institutions to adapt to these evolving challenges.
Timing Elections for Resilience
Sarah Birch, a co-author of the report and a political science professor at King’s College London, advocates for strategic planning of election dates to avoid predictable climate threats. “Elections should be scheduled when disasters are least likely,” she explained, pointing out that even in the United States, elections are still held in November, coinciding with the hurricane season.
Birch suggests that electoral management bodies must consider adjusting timelines to minimise disruptions caused by transient disasters. The report references the 2019 election in Mozambique, where Cyclone Idai inundated large areas, forcing many to seek refuge elsewhere, which ultimately impacted election outcomes. Similarly, during the parliamentary elections in Senegal in November 2024, flooding necessitated the involvement of firefighters to facilitate access for election observers.
The Heat is On
Heatwaves are another significant factor affecting elections, with at least ten electoral processes since 2022 facing challenges due to extreme temperatures. A prime example occurred during the Philippines’ general election last year, where intense heat caused vote-counting machines to overheat, resulting in ballots being rejected despite prior acceptance.
Cities with populations exceeding ten million are particularly vulnerable to elevated temperatures. In Lagos, Nigeria, residents now endure an average of 89 days per year where temperatures soar beyond pre-climate change levels, exacerbating the risks associated with conducting elections.
Collaborative Approaches to Election Management
To mitigate the impacts of climate-related disruptions, the report encourages election organisers to collaborate closely with meteorological experts, environmental agencies, and humanitarian organisations. For instance, in Peru, election officials have undergone training in disaster risk management to enhance their preparedness for potential voting-day disruptions. In Canada, the provincial legislature of Alberta has opted to shift its traditional election date from May to October to circumvent the wildfire season.
Ferran Martínez i Coma, a professor of government at Griffith University in Australia, emphasises the importance of preparedness: “As natural hazards increase, training and contingency planning are more important than ever. Preparation is key to the integrity and resilience of the elections.”
Why it Matters
The intersection of climate change and democracy represents a critical juncture for nations worldwide. As natural disasters increasingly threaten electoral processes, it becomes imperative for governments and electoral bodies to adapt proactively to these challenges. The integrity of democratic values hinges not only on political stability but also on the ability to conduct free and fair elections amidst a changing climate. Failure to address these vulnerabilities could undermine public trust in democratic institutions and exacerbate existing inequalities, with long-lasting implications for governance and social cohesion globally.
