As Iran’s 86-year-old Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, finds himself increasingly isolated in his secret hideout, the question on everyone’s mind is: what’s next for the beleaguered regime? With the recent targeted killings of high-profile figures like Qasem Soleimani and Hassan Nasrallah, and the brazen kidnapping of Venezuela’s President Maduro, the Ayatollah must be acutely aware that his own fate hangs in the balance.
The current wave of protests sweeping across Iran has been a thorn in the side of Khamenei’s regime, with demonstrators calling for his downfall. The brutal crackdown by security forces, which has resulted in thousands of deaths, has only served to further galvanize the opposition. President Trump’s rhetoric, hinting at potential US intervention, has only added fuel to the fire, with protesters believing that foreign help could be the key to toppling the regime.
However, the path forward is far from clear. While some within the ruling elite may welcome Khamenei’s removal as an opportunity for reform, the more likely scenario is a power struggle within the Revolutionary Guard, which could result in a further entrenchment of authoritarian rule. Figures like the current parliament speaker, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, a hardliner with close ties to the Guard, are poised to fill the vacuum.
The name that has been on the lips of many protesters is that of Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former Shah. Though he has grown in popularity, particularly among those nostalgic for the pre-revolutionary era, Pahlavi faces significant challenges in terms of uniting the opposition and establishing a viable power base within Iran.
Ultimately, the future of Iran’s leadership remains highly uncertain. Khamenei’s advanced age and the growing unrest may force his hand, but the potential for chaos and a further crackdown by security forces looms large. As the country grapples with economic woes, environmental degradation, and a deepening political crisis, the path to meaningful change appears fraught with obstacles.
