A new Ipsos poll commissioned by Global News indicates a significant decline in support for Alberta’s separatist movement. Conducted from May 28 to June 1, 2026, the survey reveals that only 19 per cent of Albertans would vote in favour of holding a referendum on separation this autumn. In stark contrast, 72 per cent of respondents prefer to remain part of Canada, with a small percentage either undecided or abstaining from voting.
Changing Attitudes Towards Separation
The Ipsos survey highlights a marked decrease in the desire for independence compared to earlier this year. Support for separation has dropped from 28 per cent in January to just 18 per cent currently, as indicated by the poll results. This decline suggests that the movement for independence is losing momentum, particularly as the prospect of an actual vote looms closer. If a binding referendum were to take place, 72 per cent of Albertans have expressed their intention to vote against separation, while only 18 per cent would support it, with 9 per cent remaining undecided.
Darrell Bricker, Chairman of Ipsos Canada, interpreted these findings as a reflection of how the seriousness of a potential vote is affecting public sentiment. “As people begin to consider the reality of voting on this issue, we see a softening of support for separatism,” he noted in an interview with Global News.
Firm Commitment Among Stay Voters
Interestingly, the data reveals that those wishing to remain in Canada are more resolute in their stance compared to those supporting separation. A striking 90 per cent of “stay” voters describe their choice as “definite,” in contrast to 70 per cent of those backing separation. Bricker elaborated on this dynamic, stating, “The motivation to remain part of Canada is strong, while the separatist vote, although present, is significantly smaller. They will need to mobilise a far greater turnout to be competitive.”
The separatist group, Stay Free Alberta, claims to have collected over 300,000 signatures in support of their petition for a referendum, which represents approximately six per cent of Alberta’s five million residents. However, the verification process is currently stalled following a court ruling that quashed the petition. Premier Danielle Smith has since incorporated a question regarding separation into a broader referendum, which is set for October 19, 2026.
Regional Variations and Political Divisions
Support for the referendum varies significantly across Alberta. In Calgary, only 14 per cent back the idea, compared to 18 per cent in Edmonton and 27 per cent in the rest of the province. Additionally, divisive sentiments are evident within political affiliations. Among supporters of the United Conservative Party (UCP), 50 per cent favour remaining within Canada, while 40 per cent support pursuing a referendum, and 41 per cent would opt for separation.
The data reflects a split within the UCP itself regarding separatism, as Bricker noted, “There is considerable support for staying in Canada, even within the party’s caucus.” Among NDP supporters, an overwhelming 92 per cent prefer to remain part of Canada, illustrating stark contrasts in political perspectives.
Support for holding a referendum appears to be higher among individuals under 55, with 22 per cent in that age group advocating for it, compared to only 14 per cent among those aged 55 and older. Interestingly, motivations for supporting separation have evolved; currently, 61 per cent cite a belief in a better future outside Canada, while 39 per cent refer to historical grievances.
National Perspectives on Alberta’s Future
Beyond Alberta’s borders, the sentiment towards separatism remains largely negative. Nationally, only 11 per cent of Canadians outside Alberta would support their own province separating, with Quebec showing the highest regional support at 30 per cent. In contrast, support is minimal in British Columbia (2 per cent), Ontario (3 per cent), and Atlantic Canada (3 per cent).
Overall, 80 per cent of Canadians believe Alberta should remain part of the country, including 63 per cent of Quebec residents. Bricker observed that “the numbers echo sentiments from past referendums, such as in 1995 regarding Quebec.” He also highlighted a cautious perspective among Quebecers towards Alberta’s separatist movement, as they may fear potential implications for their own province.
Interestingly, 58 per cent of Canadians outside of Alberta believe that the entire nation should have a say in Alberta’s potential separation, while 28 per cent argue that the decision should rest solely with Albertans. In Quebec, opinions are more divided, with 51 per cent supporting local decision-making and 34 per cent favouring a national perspective.
Why it Matters
The diminishing support for Alberta’s separation is indicative of a broader sentiment across Canada, reflecting a desire for unity amidst regional tensions. As Alberta approaches the referendum in October, this shift in public opinion could significantly influence political dynamics, both within the province and at the national level. The findings suggest that while separatist sentiments may persist, the majority of Canadians remain committed to a united Canada, underscoring the complexities surrounding provincial autonomy and national identity.
