As Venezuela grapples with the aftermath of Nicolás Maduro’s forced removal from power, the ripple effects are being felt most acutely in Cuba. The two nations have long been political allies, with Cuba playing a significant role in propping up the Maduro regime. Now, as the Trump administration tightens the screws on Venezuela, Cuba finds itself facing an increasingly uncertain future.
For decades, the relationship between Cuba and Venezuela has been defined by a shared vision of state-led socialism. Since the late Hugo Chávez’s rise to power in 1999, the flow of Venezuelan oil to the communist-run island in exchange for Cuban medical personnel has only deepened the ties between the two countries. Maduro, who was trained and instructed in Cuba, was seen as the natural successor to Chávez, representing continuity for both the Cuban and Venezuelan revolutions.
However, with Maduro’s forcible removal by a US military operation, the prospects for Cuba have become increasingly bleak. The Cuban government has vehemently condemned the attack, declaring two days of national mourning for the 32 Cuban nationals killed in the operation. This incident has revealed the extent of Cuba’s influence over the Venezuelan presidency and military, with Maduro’s security detail being almost entirely composed of Cuban bodyguards.
Despite Cuba’s long-standing denials of having active soldiers or security agents in Venezuela, freed political prisoners have often claimed to have been interrogated by individuals with Cuban accents. Furthermore, the relationship between the two nations is believed to have become increasingly unbalanced, with some Venezuelan ministers feeling that they are getting little in return for their oil exports to Cuba.
The impact of the Trump administration’s tactics of confiscating sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers has already begun to worsen the fuel and electricity crisis in Cuba, potentially leading to a severe and acute situation. With Maduro no longer in power, the future looks increasingly complex for the beleaguered Caribbean island, which is already grappling with its worst economic crisis since the Cold War.
Widespread blackouts, food shortages, and the outbreak of mosquito-borne diseases have taken a toll on the daily lives of ordinary Cubans. The prospect of the flow of Venezuelan oil to Cuba being cut off by the new government in Caracas fills the Cuban people with dread, especially if the acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, seeks to placate the Trump administration.
The Trump administration’s assertive stance towards Venezuela has been met with criticism from Washington’s detractors, who accuse the White House of the worst form of US imperialism and interventionism seen in Latin America since the Cold War. However, President Trump appears unfazed by such arguments, warning that he might even carry out similar operations against the president of Colombia if necessary.
As the situation in Latin America continues to evolve, Cuba finds itself in a precarious position, bracing for the uncertain aftermath of Maduro’s removal. The island nation has faced tough times before, and the government remains defiant in the face of this latest act of US military intervention in the region. However, the future remains unclear, and the impact on the Cuban people is likely to be severe.