More than one in three former prisoners under probation supervision in Wales died from drug-related causes last year, according to a new report that has reignited calls for urgent reform of the criminal justice system. The study, conducted by the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, reveals a stark disparity between Wales and the rest of England and Wales, where just over a fifth of deaths among this vulnerable group were attributed to substance misuse. The findings have prompted renewed political debate over the devolution of justice powers and the adequacy of support systems for people leaving prison.
A Crisis Hidden in Plain Sight
Dr Robert Jones, the report’s lead author, analysed official UK government data alongside information obtained through Freedom of Information requests. His research shows that 37% of all deaths among prison leavers supervised by probation services in Wales during 2024-25 were drug related. Of particular concern, 19 out of 52 fatalities involved drug poisonings where intent was undetermined – a figure significantly higher than the national average.
“These data point towards some systematic failures with incredibly tragic circumstances and consequences,” Dr Jones told BBC Wales. “Yet there isn’t really a particular debate or discussion ongoing at the moment about these deaths, and indeed their causes, and how we might actually find a solution to them.”
His comments reflect growing frustration among researchers and advocacy groups who argue that the intersection of mental health, addiction, homelessness and criminal justice is not being adequately addressed. While many aspects of social policy such as housing, education and healthcare are devolved to the Welsh government, criminal justice remains largely under Westminster control.
Voices from the Frontline Demand Action
David Bennett, representing Wallich – Wales’ largest homelessness charity – emphasised that most drug-related deaths are preventable when approached as a public health issue rather than a criminal justice matter. “Housing, health and justice need a joined-up approach,” he said. “Without co-ordinated support, prison leavers are being set up to fail.”
The charity supports conversations around devolving justice and policing powers to Wales, arguing that fragmented governance hinders meaningful progress. This aligns with the Welsh Government’s long-standing position that full control over prisons and probation would allow for better integration of services designed to reduce reoffending and improve outcomes for formerly incarcerated individuals.
However, not everyone agrees. Adrian Mason, a Reform Senedd member, dismissed the call for further devolution. “The idea that the answer to drug deaths is more devolution is demonstrably wrong, as proven by Scotland,” he argued. “In Scotland, justice is devolved and run by nationalists, and they have the highest drug death rates in the whole of Europe.”
Homelessness and Inequality Compound the Crisis
The report also highlights alarming trends beyond fatalities. Rough sleeping on the day of release increased by 24% in 2025-26, with 695 people leaving prison while homeless. Women, too, face disproportionate barriers; over a third (39%) of custodial sentences handed down to women in Wales that year were for shop theft – often linked to poverty and addiction.
Ethnic disparities persist within the prison population. Black residents in Wales are incarcerated at nearly four times the rate of white residents – 58 versus 15 per 10,000 people respectively. These figures underscore deeper systemic inequities embedded within the justice system.
A spokesperson for the Welsh Government acknowledged the gravity of the situation: “Every drug-related death is a tragedy. We are working closely with health boards, local authorities, Public Health Wales and other key partners to reduce the harms caused by substance misuse, focusing on early intervention, prevention, treatment and recovery support.”
The UK Ministry of Justice responded by pointing to ongoing initiatives, including £3.4 million invested in cross-sectoral programmes aimed at helping prison leavers overcome addiction. They also noted efforts to reduce female imprisonment through expanded community-based alternatives and enhanced measures to prevent drugs entering prisons.
Questions Linger Over Data Transparency
Ruth Jones, chair of the Welsh Affairs Committee at Westminster, expressed dismay at the statistics. “It is devastating to hear that more than a third of all deaths among prison leavers in Wales were due to drug poisoning, and that the number of homeless prison leavers has increased,” she said. Her committee previously published findings indicating strain across the prison and probation system due to rising complexity in caseloads.
She went on to criticise what she described as insufficient transparency around Wales-specific justice data. “In light of several of Dr Jones’ data requests to the Ministry of Justice not receiving a response, it is clear that there is still work to be done here.”
Why it Matters
The alarming rise in drug-related deaths among former prisoners in Wales represents more than just a statistical anomaly—it signals a failure of coordinated care and policy. With over a third of those on probation dying from substance abuse, and homelessness rates climbing alongside ethnic disparities in incarceration, the crisis demands immediate attention. Whether through improved data sharing, greater autonomy in justice matters, or enhanced collaboration between health and law enforcement agencies, addressing this issue requires bold action grounded in compassion and evidence-based strategy.
