Recent seismic events across the globe have raised concerns about the frequency and intensity of earthquakes in 2026. Despite the alarming headlines stemming from significant tremors in regions such as Indonesia and Venezuela, experts indicate that the annual rate of major earthquakes remains consistent with historical averages. A powerful 7.7 magnitude quake struck near Indonesia’s capital on Saturday, marking it as the 11th earthquake exceeding magnitude seven this year, with five of those occurring since June. According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), this year has also seen 34 earthquakes registering between magnitudes six and 6.9.
Understanding the Numbers
The USGS anticipates approximately 16 major earthquakes each year, which typically includes 15 in the magnitude seven range and one that reaches magnitude eight or higher. For context, a magnitude of 5.3 is classified as “moderate,” while anything above 6.3 is deemed “strong.” Earthquakes Canada categorises those within the range of seven to 7.9 as “major,” with any quake registering six or above likely to cause substantial damage.
John Cassidy, an earthquake seismologist with Natural Resources Canada, notes, “We’re three-quarters of the way through the year; we’ve had 11 earthquakes when the average would suggest 12. We’re just about on average.” Historically, 2010 saw a record 23 major hurricanes, the highest in 26 years, while since 2000, the average for earthquakes in the seven to 7.9 magnitude range has been 14.
Tectonic Forces at Play
Globally, approximately 20,000 earthquakes occur annually, translating to about 55 per day, as reported by the National Earthquake Information Centre. The underlying cause of these seismic events is primarily the movement of tectonic plates. Cassidy explains, “For the big earthquakes, what really drives those is the movement of tectonic plates. In the case of Indonesia and Canada’s west coast, we have ocean plates being pushed beneath the continent, resulting in a collision of plates.”
These tectonic plates advance at a rate of five to seven centimetres each year—comparable to the speed of fingernail growth. Over a century, this slow movement accumulates into significant shifts, potentially leading to major earthquakes of magnitude seven or higher.
In Canada alone, there have been 2,819 recorded earthquakes this year, according to Earthquakes Canada. Robert Shcherbakov, an earth sciences professor at Western University, highlights the significance of an earthquake’s location and depth in determining its impact. “Earthquakes that occur closer to the surface typically create more shaking on the ground, which can result in increased damage to structures,” he notes. Additionally, the construction quality of buildings plays a crucial role in their resilience against seismic activity.
Regional Disparities in Earthquake Impact
Comparative analyses of earthquake resilience across countries highlight stark differences in infrastructure. Shcherbakov points out that Japan, for instance, has stringent building regulations and retrofitting measures that enhance the durability of structures against seismic forces, unlike some other regions.
Recent catastrophic earthquakes in Venezuela and Colombia exemplify the devastating potential of seismic events. A 7.2 magnitude quake struck Venezuela’s northern coast on June 24, followed by another significant tremor just seconds later, resulting in over 6,000 fatalities. Similarly, a 7.1 magnitude earthquake on Japan’s southern island of Kyushu on July 28 led to the deaths of 38 individuals, while a powerful 7.4 magnitude quake in Colombia on August 10 resulted in nearly 300 deaths.
Despite the severity of these recent quakes, Shcherbakov maintains that the overall number of seismic events this year is consistent with typical patterns. “This year’s earthquake count is a normal year from this point of view,” he asserts.
However, Cassidy underscores the unique nature of this year’s seismic activity. “The biggest difference this year is not the numbers, but the fact that these earthquakes are close to major population centres and vulnerable areas. They’ve been particularly devastating earthquakes, very impactful earthquakes.”
Why it Matters
The ongoing seismic activity serves as a stark reminder of the planet’s dynamic nature and the importance of preparedness, particularly in regions prone to earthquakes. As urban populations grow and infrastructure ages, the potential for catastrophic consequences from major earthquakes increases. Understanding seismic patterns and investing in resilient infrastructure can make a significant difference in mitigating the impact of future earthquakes, safeguarding lives and communities.
