**
As Ukraine intensifies its assaults on critical Russian energy infrastructure and the weight of European sanctions becomes increasingly burdensome, a stark shift in public sentiment is emerging within Russia. Recent polling indicates that dissatisfaction with President Vladimir Putin’s economic management is escalating, signalling a troubling trend for the Kremlin as ordinary citizens begin to feel the bite of a beleaguered economy.
Discontent Brews Among the Population
New data from the NEST Centre reveals that a significant portion of the Russian populace—approximately one-third—holds a negative view of Putin’s economic policies, while only 15 per cent see them in a positive light. This dissatisfaction is particularly pronounced among poorer citizens, who are often on fixed incomes and facing the brunt of economic hardship. Moreover, the poll indicates that over a third of respondents believe the economic situation has worsened in the past three months, with one in five expressing an unfavourable overall assessment.
Sergey Aleksashenko, the head of economics at NEST Centre and a former deputy finance minister, noted that the demographic most vocal in their discontent includes older voters between the ages of 45 and 65, as well as individuals reliant on social media for news. He warned that the current economic climate could amplify existing frustrations, potentially leading to greater unrest.
The Impact of Military Spending
In the wake of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian government has dramatically ramped up its military expenditure, allocating a staggering 40 per cent of the federal budget to defence. This prioritisation of military spending has created an economy heavily skewed towards the military-industrial sector, detracting from vital civilian needs. Although Putin has managed to shield the public from immediate repercussions of the ongoing war, sustained economic decline will inevitably challenge this facade.
As Ukraine continues its strategic strikes on Russian oil refineries and ports, the repercussions are now being felt directly by everyday citizens. The financial strain is forcing the Kremlin to divert resources from other sectors, exacerbating the plight of the average Russian. The economic optimism appears to be confined primarily to younger citizens aged 18 to 24, who have expressed a positive view of the economy at an 82:18 ratio, contrasting sharply with older demographics and those experiencing lower living standards.
A Shifting Landscape of Public Opinion
The recent polling findings mark a significant moment in Russian history, with dissatisfaction towards economic policy now at its lowest since 2022. This decline mirrors sentiments seen during previous tumultuous periods, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the controversial pension reforms of 2018. Yet, Aleksashenko cautions that, despite rising discontent, the Kremlin likely perceives this unrest as mere public dissatisfaction rather than a genuine threat to its stability.
There is currently no cohesive movement calling for a fundamental change in government strategy or regime change, which may dampen any immediate concerns among Kremlin officials. Nevertheless, Aleksashenko argues that an ongoing sense of economic decline could compound pressures on Putin and his administration, increasing the likelihood of miscalculations and policy mistakes.
Why it Matters
The growing economic dissatisfaction among Russians is more than a mere statistic; it signals an impending storm for the Kremlin. As citizens grapple with worsening economic conditions, the potential for unrest could rise, challenging the regime’s long-standing grip on power. In a country where public grievances have historically been suppressed, the current climate could either catalyse change or lead to further repression as the government seeks to maintain control. The implications of this discontent extend far beyond Russia, potentially affecting geopolitical stability in the region and beyond.
