In light of decreasing pupil enrolments across England, the National Education Union (NEU) is urging the government to seize this opportunity to reduce class sizes. The call comes as the Department for Education projects a 6.8% decline in primary pupil numbers between 2023 and 2029, while secondary enrolments remain stable. NEU General Secretary Daniel Kebede highlighted that approximately one million students are currently in classes exceeding 31 pupils, emphasising the need for change.
Decline in Pupil Numbers and Class Size Concerns
The NEU’s recommendations arise from new government statistics indicating a slight reduction in the overall number of teachers, alongside ongoing efforts to meet a target of 6,500 additional teaching positions across secondary, special schools, and further education institutions. Presently, there are 4,654 teachers in these sectors, reflecting significant progress towards the government’s goal, which is set to be achieved by the end of the current parliamentary term. However, the overall teaching workforce in schools has decreased by 1,900 full-time teachers in 2025.
In an announcement made in April 2026, the government clarified that its commitment to increasing teacher numbers does not encompass primary schools or early years settings. In response to the anticipated drop in primary pupil numbers, the government has reduced its teacher recruitment target by 23% for the upcoming school year.
The Case for Smaller Class Sizes
Kebede argues that instead of scaling back on teacher recruitment, the government should leverage the decline in pupil numbers to facilitate smaller class sizes. “Currently, we have the largest class sizes in Europe, with a million children taught in classes of 31 or more,” he remarked. Kebede further noted that during the previous Labour administration, the rate of teacher reductions did not match the decline in pupil enrolments. He stressed the necessity for more teachers to support an increased number of children with special educational needs in mainstream schools by 2030.
At North Mead Primary Academy in Leicester, principal Ben Burpitt reveals the challenges of recruiting specialist teachers. With nearly half of the school’s pupils reliant on free school meals and many requiring additional support, finding qualified educators is becoming increasingly difficult. “We have had particular trouble trying to find a specially trained teacher for our group of most vulnerable children,” Burpitt explained. As pupil numbers dwindle, he anticipates a decrease in funding linked to per-pupil allocation, complicating the balancing act of maintaining adequate staffing levels.
Adapting to Changing Needs
The financial landscape for schools is shifting, particularly with a confirmed 3.3% pay offer for support staff in 2026-27, which must be covered by existing school budgets. To address these challenges, some academies are opting to train their own staff. Sara McAdam, who leads the training institute at North Mead, acknowledged the need to adapt to the falling birth rate. “We’re going to have to look at that and ensure that we’re not recruiting too many primary trainees, which could leave them without employment by year-end,” she stated.
Newly qualified teacher Joseph Brown, who transitioned from a teaching assistant role through the academy trust’s training scheme, expressed contentment with his entry-level salary of approximately £32,000. “It’s not necessarily something that you do for money. You do the job because you enjoy it,” he remarked, reflecting the passion many educators share for their profession.
The Future of Teacher Recruitment and Pay
The backdrop of these developments includes ongoing discussions regarding teacher pay, with a potential strike ballot looming in the autumn. The government is expected to announce a new pay award shortly, and the NEU has indicated that it will consider a ballot if the proposed increases lack adequate funding, rather than being sourced from existing school budgets.
Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson reaffirmed the government’s commitment to ensuring that every child is taught by an exceptional teacher, asserting that significant strides are being made in the recruitment and retention of teaching staff.
Why it Matters
The current landscape of education in England is at a critical juncture, with declining pupil numbers presenting both challenges and opportunities. The push for smaller class sizes could improve educational outcomes, particularly for vulnerable students, while simultaneously addressing the pressing issue of teacher recruitment and retention. As schools grapple with reduced funding and staffing challenges, the government’s response will be pivotal in shaping the future of education for generations to come.
