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The rapidly developing El Niño weather phenomenon is poised to thrust an additional 50 million individuals into acute hunger by the end of next year, according to the latest forecasts from the United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP). This alarming projection adds to the already precarious situation faced by hundreds of millions worldwide who are suffering from severe food insecurity, largely driven by prolonged droughts in Africa and escalating food prices due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict in Iran.
The Worsening Food Security Landscape
Currently, an estimated 225 million people across 45 countries are experiencing acute food insecurity. The WFP warns that even a less severe El Niño could lead to a dramatic increase in this figure, with the most affected regions expected to include Central and South America, the Caribbean, and southern Africa. Meanwhile, agricultural outputs in South and South-East Asia are likely to suffer from below-average rainfall, compounding the challenges faced by farmers in those areas.
El Niño, a recurring climate pattern that alters weather conditions globally, is projected to be one of the strongest occurrences in the last seven decades. Some experts have dubbed it a “super El Niño,” though this term does not have official recognition. This weather system’s intensity and repercussions are being significantly influenced by the ongoing climate crisis, which has already set records for global temperatures. The UN Secretary-General recently cautioned that the planet is “on fire,” highlighting the urgent need for action in combating climate change.
Anticipatory Measures and Economic Impacts
In light of these developments, the WFP has initiated early warning systems and anticipatory relief efforts, allocating a budget of at least $80 million (£60 million) to mitigate the impending effects of extreme weather. However, experts like Richard Choularton, the WFP’s director of climate and resilience services, caution that the most severe ramifications will not be felt until the 2027-2028 lean season in southern Africa, indicating a delayed crisis.
“Farmers will likely deplete their food supplies over multiple seasons,” Choularton said. The main growing season in southern Africa runs from October 2026 to March 2027, but the lean season that follows could expose millions to heightened food insecurity. Fortunately, the residual benefits from last year’s unexpectedly strong harvest may offer some temporary relief, though rising food prices driven by the Middle East conflict remain a concern.
Historical Context and Future Outlook
During the 2015-16 El Niño event, between 60 million and 100 million people were affected by acute food insecurity, a term used by the WFP to denote hunger levels below famine. At that time, the organisation was yet to implement its updated anticipatory measures, which it hopes will reduce the impact of this year’s extreme weather conditions. However, Choularton pointed out that ongoing data collection efforts have been hindered by insufficient funding, limiting the WFP’s ability to assess the situation comprehensively.
The WFP’s analysis is based on its operations in 45 countries where baseline estimates for food insecurity are available. There is a risk that the impacts of El Niño could extend beyond these regions, leading to increased food prices globally. Jean-Martin Bauer, the WFP’s director of food security, emphasised that these price fluctuations will depend significantly on the decisions made by exporting nations. “It’s crucial to prevent major food-exporting countries from halting their exports,” he stressed.
In Europe and the UK, farmers are already sounding alarms regarding the detrimental effects of extreme heat and insufficient rainfall on their crops, with consumers preparing for potential price hikes at the grocery store.
Why it Matters
The looming spectre of El Niño presents a formidable challenge to global food security, threatening the livelihoods of millions and exacerbating existing vulnerabilities in already affected regions. As climatic shifts continue to affect agricultural productivity and food prices, the international community must act with urgency and solidarity to implement effective strategies that will safeguard the most vulnerable populations. Addressing this crisis is not merely a matter of humanitarian concern; it is a collective responsibility that underscores the interconnectedness of our global food systems and the imperative for sustainable practices in the face of climate change.
