In a stark warning, UN experts have projected that nearly 50 million individuals could face acute hunger by the close of next year due to the rapidly intensifying El Niño weather phenomenon. This alarming forecast compounds the already critical situation affecting hundreds of millions globally, particularly in regions grappling with prolonged droughts and rising food prices exacerbated by geopolitical tensions.
The Impending Crisis
The latest analysis from the World Food Programme (WFP) indicates that El Niño, which affects global rainfall patterns every few years, could significantly worsen food insecurity across 45 countries. Currently, an estimated 225 million people are experiencing acute food shortages, and the anticipated effects of El Niño could add over 20% to this figure. The most vulnerable regions, including Central and South America, the Caribbean, and southern Africa, are expected to bear the brunt of this climatic upheaval.
Southern Africa, in particular, is poised for severe repercussions, with the lean season of 2027-2028 projected to bring the most significant food security challenges. Richard Choularton, WFP’s director of the climate and resilience service, highlighted the potential for drastic impacts, emphasising that the aftershocks of this El Niño will resonate long after the immediate effects are felt.
The Nature of El Niño
Characterised by warmer ocean temperatures in the Pacific, El Niño alters weather patterns globally and is now being described by some as a “super El Niño”—a term that, while not officially recognised, underscores the severity of the current event. Forecasts suggest this year’s El Niño could be the strongest in over 70 years, with climate change amplifying its effects.
Experts caution that even a less severe El Niño could trigger significant challenges for agriculture, particularly in regions where farmers are already struggling. In South and Southeast Asia, for instance, below-average rainfall is predicted, jeopardising crop yields and exacerbating existing food insecurity.
Early Warning Systems and Anticipatory Measures
In response to the looming crisis, the WFP is implementing early warning systems and anticipatory relief efforts, with a budget allocation of at least $80 million (£60 million). These initiatives aim to mitigate the impact of extreme weather, although the WFP acknowledges that the consequences of El Niño will be far-reaching and may take time to manifest fully.
The 2025 harvest, which was particularly fruitful, may offer some buffer for farmers, but concerns are mounting about the sustainability of food supplies. Jean-Martin Bauer, WFP’s director of food security, noted that while food prices were relatively stable at the end of 2025, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has added upward pressure on costs.
Historical Context and Future Implications
The repercussions of El Niño are not unprecedented. The 2015-2016 event saw between 60 million and 100 million people impacted by acute food insecurity. At that time, the WFP had not yet implemented its anticipatory actions, indicating that this year’s measures may help mitigate some adverse effects, provided adequate data collection and funding are secured.
However, challenges remain, especially in terms of data availability, which has been hindered by budget constraints. The WFP’s assessments are based on the 45 countries it monitors, but the potential for significant impacts in unmonitored regions cannot be overlooked.
Global Food Prices in Jeopardy
As the situation unfolds, global food prices are likely to come under increasing strain. Bauer cautioned that the actions of exporting nations will play a critical role in determining market stability. A scenario in which major food exporters curtail their shipments could exacerbate food access issues, leading to high prices and regional shortages.
In the UK and across Europe, farmers are already sounding alarms over the effects of extreme heat and insufficient rainfall on their yields, leading retailers to brace for an inevitable surge in prices.
Why it Matters
The ramifications of the impending El Niño extend far beyond immediate hunger; they encapsulate a relentless cycle of vulnerability that underscores the urgent need for global cooperation and proactive measures. As food insecurity mounts, the world faces not only humanitarian challenges but also economic and social destabilisation. Addressing these interconnected crises requires a concerted effort from governments, NGOs, and the private sector to ensure food security and resilience in the face of an increasingly unpredictable climate.
