A rapidly intensifying El Niño weather phenomenon is poised to exacerbate food insecurity across the globe, potentially pushing an additional 50 million people into acute hunger by the close of next year, according to United Nations forecasts. This alarming prediction comes in the wake of ongoing droughts and escalating food prices, primarily driven by geopolitical tensions, including the conflict in Iran.
Escalating Hunger Crisis
The World Food Programme (WFP) has reported that approximately 225 million individuals across 45 countries are already grappling with severe food shortages. The looming El Niño is expected to significantly worsen this situation, with Central and South America, the Caribbean, and southern Africa likely to experience the most devastating effects. The climate crisis is intertwined with this weather pattern, intensifying its repercussions and leading to concerns about agricultural viability in affected regions.
Experts have indicated that even if the forthcoming El Niño proves to be less potent than anticipated, its effects could still be catastrophic. The WFP has cautioned that the phenomenon, which develops periodically in the Pacific Ocean, is on track to become the strongest instance observed in over seven decades. This year’s event is being informally labelled a “super El Niño,” a term that, while not officially recognised, underscores the anticipated severity of its impact.
Agricultural Impacts and Anticipatory Measures
The ramifications of this El Niño could take a considerable toll on agricultural production, particularly in south and southeast Asia, where reduced rainfall is expected to hamper farming activities. India, for instance, may see its monsoon season disrupted, raising concerns about food availability in a region that is heavily reliant on these seasonal rains.
In response to these challenges, the WFP is aiming to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather through enhanced early warning systems and anticipatory relief efforts, with a budget allocation of at least $80 million (£60 million). However, Richard Choularton, the WFP’s director of climate and resilience services, emphasised that the most significant food security impacts in southern Africa will likely be felt during the 2027 to 2028 lean season, following the main growing period from October 2026 to March 2027.
While farmers may benefit from the residual effects of a bountiful harvest last year, the persisting pressures on food prices—exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East—remain a concern. Jean-Martin Bauer, the WFP’s food security director, noted that while food prices were relatively stable at the end of 2025, the current geopolitical landscape poses risks for future price stability.
Historical Context and Future Projections
Historically, the 2015-2016 El Niño event saw between 60 million to 100 million people impacted by acute food insecurity. During that period, the WFP had not yet implemented its updated anticipatory measures, which experts hope will lessen the blow of this year’s extreme weather. Nonetheless, Choularton expressed concerns over gaps in data collection, which have been exacerbated by funding shortages.
The WFP’s assessments cover 45 countries where baseline estimates for food insecurity are available, but the potential for additional impacts beyond these regions remains. With global food prices already under strain, Bauer warned that the situation could be further complicated by decisions made by exporting nations. Maintaining a consistent flow of food exports is crucial to prevent spikes in prices or accessibility issues in affected areas.
Regional Implications
In Europe, farmers are also voicing concerns over the impact of extreme heat and insufficient rainfall on their yields, suggesting that consumers may soon feel the effects in the form of higher prices at supermarkets. The interconnected nature of global food systems means that no region is insulated from the fallout of El Niño, making it essential for nations to collaborate on strategies to counteract these impending challenges.
Why it Matters
The potential for 50 million more people to face acute hunger due to El Niño highlights a critical moment for global food security. The intertwined effects of climate change, geopolitical tensions, and economic pressures necessitate urgent and coordinated action from nations worldwide. As severe weather patterns become increasingly common, this crisis serves as a stark reminder of our shared responsibility to address the underlying issues contributing to food insecurity and to protect the most vulnerable populations globally.