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As the region braces for a formidable super El Niño, CARE International’s regional director for East and Southern Africa, Walter Mwasaa, has issued a stark warning regarding the disproportionate effects this climate phenomenon will have on women. With significant reductions in foreign aid compounding the challenges faced by vulnerable populations, Mwasaa emphasises that the upcoming El Niño should be regarded as a critical women’s health issue.
A Looming Crisis for Women
Mwasaa’s insights reveal that women are expected to bear the brunt of the super El Niño’s consequences, a reality that is compounded by the ongoing cuts to international aid. “We should be very worried about the coming super El Niño, and we should absolutely be viewing it as a women’s health problem,” he stated, highlighting the unique burdens women face in both rural and urban settings. As caregivers, women often shoulder the responsibility of feeding and caring for their families, making them particularly susceptible to health challenges during crises.
El Niño, a naturally occurring climate event driven by anomalously high sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, disrupts weather patterns worldwide. This year’s phenomenon is anticipated to be particularly severe due to an expected spike in ocean temperatures and the ongoing climate crisis, which exacerbates extreme weather events.
Regional Variations in Impact
In the East and Southern Africa region, the effects of El Niño will vary significantly. Northern nations such as Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia are predicted to experience an uptick in severe rainfall, while southern counterparts like Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Madagascar are likely to contend with intense droughts. The implications for agriculture are dire, with projections indicating a potential $342 billion (£260 billion) decline in global agricultural output. This downturn poses a threat to food security and household incomes across the continent.
Research corroborates Mwasaa’s concerns, illustrating that climate-induced disasters often lead to an increase in child marriages, as seen in Bangladesh, and compel girls in Somaliland to undertake lengthy water-fetching journeys instead of attending school. The prioritisation of boys’ education in times of crisis, alongside the nutritional needs of pregnant women and infants, underscores the gendered dimensions of climate vulnerability. “Mothers will usually work the hardest to provide food, and she will be allowed less rest, and she will typically eat last,” Mwasaa added. He recounted harrowing stories, including a woman forced to give birth in a tree during floods in Mozambique, a scenario that is likely to become more frequent as climate-related disasters escalate in severity.
The Devastating Effects of Aid Reductions
The challenges presented by the super El Niño are exacerbated by significant cuts to foreign aid, which have severely impacted CARE’s operations across the region. CARE’s budget for East and Southern Africa is projected to plummet from around $250 million in 2024 to merely $140 million by the financial year 2027. In Ethiopia, for instance, aid previously valued at $130 million will be reduced to just $15 million, with only Malawi slated to receive direct aid from the United States in 2027, amounting to $8 million.
In Somalia, the closure of approximately 50 health and nutrition centres since January 2026 has coincided with a crisis in child malnutrition, affecting around two million children, including nearly 500,000 facing severe acute malnourishment. Mwasaa reported a troubling increase in pregnant women arriving at remaining facilities, many of whom have endured exhausting journeys without food or water to access much-needed care.
Future Pathways and Pan-African Cooperation
Amid dwindling resources, CARE is striving to foster partnerships with the private sector to explore sustainable solutions. Mwasaa believes that reducing dependency on aid while promoting local market engagement can empower communities. However, he cautions that the practicality of finding suitable products from affluent nations often fails to meet the needs of the African populace.
Encouragingly, Mwasaa observes a growing trend of pan-African cooperation, with nations pledging mutual support in areas like food security and health crises. “For me, this is all very exciting, and this kind of ownership is going to be crucial if we are to make development work in the years ahead,” he affirmed.
Why it Matters
The looming threat of the super El Niño, coupled with drastic cuts to foreign aid, raises urgent questions about the resilience of vulnerable populations, particularly women, in East and Southern Africa. As these challenges escalate, it becomes increasingly vital to prioritise inclusive strategies that address gender-specific needs within climate adaptation and disaster response frameworks. The survival and empowerment of women in this context are pivotal not only for individual families but for the broader socio-economic fabric of the region.
