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The rapidly approaching El Niño weather phenomenon is projected to exacerbate food insecurity, potentially pushing an additional 50 million people into acute hunger by the close of the next year, according to the latest assessments from the United Nations. This alarming situation compounds the existing crisis affecting hundreds of millions, primarily in regions already grappling with severe droughts and rising food prices exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict in Iran.
Impacts of El Niño on Global Food Security
The World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that the consequences of this year’s El Niño, which is predicted to be the most intense in over 70 years, will likely be felt most acutely in Central and South America, the Caribbean, and southern Africa. Even if the forthcoming El Niño does not reach its most extreme potential, it is still expected to significantly increase the number of people facing food shortages, contributing to the already staggering figure of 225 million individuals in need across 45 countries.
The situation is particularly dire for agricultural sectors in south and southeast Asia, where expected reductions in rainfall could impede crop yields and threaten the livelihoods of farmers. With the monsoon season already under threat, the potential for widespread agricultural disruption looms large.
A “Super El Niño” and Its Climate Implications
This year’s El Niño phenomenon is drawing attention not only for its potential severity but also for its intersection with the ongoing climate crisis. Experts indicate that the weather patterns associated with El Niño will be intensified by global warming, possibly leading to record-breaking temperatures either this year or in 2027.
While some refer to this El Niño as a “super El Niño,” it is essential to note that this terminology is not officially recognised. Nevertheless, the implications for food security are clear. The WFP aims to mitigate these impacts through early warning systems and anticipatory relief efforts, with a budget of at least $80 million earmarked for these initiatives.
Looking Ahead: The Long-Term Consequences
The repercussions of this El Niño are expected to extend far beyond immediate food shortages. Farmers may find themselves depleting their reserves over multiple growing seasons. In southern Africa, for example, the main agricultural cycle runs from October through March, yet experts indicate that the most significant impacts will not be felt until the 2027 to 2028 lean season—a full nine months after the harvest period.
Richard Choularton, WFP’s director of climate and resilience service, underscored the gravity of the situation, noting that the most serious food security challenges will manifest during this lean season. Fortunately, farmers may benefit somewhat from last year’s robust harvest, which provided a temporary buffer against the immediate impacts of rising food prices.
Jean-Martin Bauer, the WFP’s director of food security, echoed these sentiments, stating that while food prices had remained relatively stable at the end of 2025, pressures from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could alter this landscape.
Global Food Prices Under Threat
The implications of El Niño are not confined to the most vulnerable regions; global food prices could face substantial upward pressure. The WFP highlights the importance of monitoring export decisions made by larger agricultural nations, as restrictions on food exports could further exacerbate the crisis.
The situation is not confined to developing nations; in the UK and Europe, farmers are already expressing concerns about the effects of extreme heat and insufficient rainfall on their own harvests, leading retailers to brace for potential price increases.
Why it Matters
The unfolding El Niño event represents a critical juncture in the global fight against hunger and food insecurity. With millions already facing acute food shortages, the additional pressures brought by this climatic phenomenon could further destabilise food systems worldwide, creating ripple effects that extend far beyond the immediate crisis zones. As nations grapple with the implications of rising food prices and agricultural challenges, the importance of coordinated international response efforts becomes ever more apparent. The time to act is now, as the stakes for global food security remain perilously high.
