As the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran intensifies, President Donald Trump has issued a stark ultimatum, threatening to devastate Iran’s infrastructure unless a satisfactory peace agreement is reached by Tuesday night. His comments included chilling promises to reduce parts of the nation to ruins, asserting that a “whole civilization will die tonight” if negotiations fail. This warning comes in the wake of a series of airstrikes that have already significantly damaged vital facilities across Iran, raising alarms over potential violations of international law.
Strikes on Critical Infrastructure
In recent weeks, US and Israeli military operations have escalated, targeting key components of Iran’s infrastructure. Reports from BBC Verify confirm that these strikes have hit two major steel plants, three bridges, and a pharmaceutical facility, resulting in considerable civilian casualties and disruption. The situation has been particularly dire, as local officials report the deaths of at least 13 individuals following an airstrike on a bridge in the city of Karaj.
Images released following these attacks reveal extensive destruction, with construction cranes lying idle amidst the rubble. Trump has publicly boasted about the strikes on social media, declaring that “the biggest bridge in Iran comes tumbling down.” The implications of these actions extend beyond immediate physical damage, impacting the livelihoods of countless Iranians.
Economic Consequences of the Strikes
The economic ramifications of these military actions are expected to be profound. Arman Mahmoudian, a research fellow at the University of South Florida’s Global and National Security Institute, highlighted that Iran’s steel production capability has been severely hampered, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claiming that up to 70% of Iran’s steel manufacturing capacity has been disrupted. This could jeopardise nearly 20 million tons of output, which translates to a potential decline of 3-3.5% of Iran’s GDP.
Moreover, attacks on the pharmaceutical sector, including a strike on Tofigh Daru Research & Engineering Company, could jeopardise access to essential medications, further straining Iran’s healthcare system amidst ongoing conflicts. While the pharmaceutical industry contributes a minor portion to the overall economy, disruptions during periods of heightened need could lead to dire consequences for public health.
Damage to Educational and Religious Sites
The airstrikes have not spared educational institutions or religious sites, further complicating the humanitarian crisis. Recent attacks have damaged Shahid Beheshti University and Sharif University of Technology in Tehran, while parts of Husseinya Mosque in Zanjan were also levelled, resulting in civilian casualties. Such strikes raise significant ethical questions about the targeting of civilian infrastructure and the broader implications for Iranian society.
A railway worker in Tehran expressed frustration over the ongoing attacks, stating, “Everything is falling apart.” This sentiment resonates with many Iranians as they grapple with the destruction of essential services and the looming threat of further military actions.
Legal and Ethical Implications
The legality of these strikes has come under scrutiny, with senior US and UN officials warning that the attacks may constitute war crimes under international law. According to Professor Rachel VanLandingham, a former US military lawyer, while some strikes on civilian sites can be legally justified, they must not cause excessive harm to non-combatants. The UN’s human rights chief, Volker Turk, echoed these concerns, asserting that deliberately attacking civilians and civilian infrastructure constitutes a war crime.
Sir Geoffrey Nice, a former prosecutor at the Hague, emphasised that the destruction of critical infrastructure, such as power and water facilities, presents grave risks to civilian populations, potentially leading to starvation and disease. Despite these warnings, Trump has dismissed concerns regarding the legality of the strikes, framing the real crime as allowing Iran to develop nuclear capabilities.
Why it Matters
The escalation of military actions against Iran highlights a precarious juncture in international relations, with the potential for significant humanitarian repercussions. As infrastructure crumbles and civilian lives are disrupted, the spectre of war crimes looms large. This situation not only endangers the immediate safety of countless individuals but also threatens regional stability and global security. The international community must remain vigilant and engaged, advocating for accountability and the protection of civilian lives amidst escalating hostilities.
