In a dramatic escalation of hostilities, President Donald Trump has issued a stark ultimatum to Iran, threatening to launch extensive military strikes against critical infrastructure unless a satisfactory agreement is reached by the end of Tuesday. The President’s remarks, which included a chilling assertion that a “whole civilization will die tonight” if negotiations fail, have raised alarm across the globe. This latest round of military action has already resulted in significant damage to civilian facilities, including schools and hospitals, further complicating the humanitarian landscape amid ongoing conflict.
A Surge in Targeted Strikes
Recent weeks have witnessed a surge in US and Israeli airstrikes aimed at Iranian infrastructure, with BBC Verify confirming assaults on at least two steel plants, three bridges, and a pharmaceutical facility. The scale and specificity of these attacks suggest a strategic approach, targeting not just military assets but facilities that support the Iranian economy and civilian life.
One of the most devastating strikes occurred on Thursday, targeting a bridge under construction in Karaj, which resulted in the deaths of at least 13 individuals. Video evidence corroborated by BBC Verify showed the destruction, with significant damage rendering the bridge unusable. Trump later shared footage of the strike on social media, heralding it as a significant victory against Iranian infrastructure.
Impact on Iranian Industry and Civilian Life
The impact of these strikes has been profound. The Isfahan Mobarakeh Steel Company, Iran’s largest steel manufacturer, was hit on 27 March, resulting in substantial operational disruptions. This facility, which generated around $860 million (£649 million) in exports between March 2025 and January 2026, now faces an uncertain future. Satellite imagery also indicated severe damage to the Khuzestan Steel Company, with local officials estimating that repairs could take up to a year.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed that the strikes have crippled up to 70% of Iran’s steel production capabilities, which could pose a serious threat to the Iranian economy. Arman Mahmoudian, a research fellow at the University of South Florida’s Global and National Security Institute, emphasised that such losses could jeopardise nearly 20 million tons of output, potentially affecting 3-3.5% of Iran’s GDP.
Notably, the attacks have also extended to the pharmaceutical sector. On 31 March, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) reported a strike on the Tofigh Daru Research & Engineering Company, one of Iran’s largest pharmaceutical firms. While the IDF alleged that this facility was involved in the development of chemical weapons, independent verification of these claims remains absent. Mahmoudian warned that targeting pharmaceuticals could severely hinder access to essential medicines in a country already facing health crises.
Civilian Infrastructure Under Siege
The wave of strikes has not spared educational institutions or religious sites. Recent images revealed damage at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran, along with strikes reported at Sharif University of Technology. In Zanjan, the Husseinya Mosque suffered extensive damage, with reports indicating that at least two individuals were killed in that attack.
Moreover, the IDF has claimed responsibility for bombing key components of Iran’s railway system, with footage emerging of a collapsed railway bridge and injured civilians being evacuated from the scene. A railway worker in Tehran expressed frustration over the continuous assaults, lamenting, “Everything is falling apart.”
Legal Implications: Are These Strikes War Crimes?
As the strikes continue, legal experts and officials from the US and UN are questioning whether these military actions could amount to war crimes. Under international law, while targeted strikes on civilian sites may be permissible in specific circumstances, they must not lead to excessive civilian harm. Professor Rachel VanLandingham, a former US military lawyer, highlighted the need for military actions to avoid disproportionate damage to civilian infrastructure.
The independent monitoring organisation Acled noted that civilian harm has predominantly centred around military and state-linked sites rather than indiscriminate attacks across urban areas. However, UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric asserted that any attacks causing “excessive incidental civilian harm” would be deemed unlawful.
Sir Geoffrey Nice, a former prosecutor at The Hague, warned that strikes on infrastructure critical to survival, such as power plants and water facilities, risk exacerbating humanitarian crises. He underscored that civilians have a right to protection during conflicts, and undermining their basic means of life could lead to dire consequences, including starvation and disease.
Despite the mounting international concern, Trump has downplayed the potential implications of his military threats, asserting, “You know the war crime? The war crime is allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”
Why it Matters
The ongoing strikes against Iranian infrastructure represent a significant escalation in US-Israeli military operations that could destabilise the region further. With critical industries under attack and civilian casualties rising, the potential for humanitarian crises looms large. The international community’s response to these actions will be crucial in determining the future of US-Iran relations and the broader geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. The implications of these strikes extend beyond immediate military objectives, raising urgent ethical and legal questions about the conduct of war and the protection of civilians in conflict zones.