South Sudan is on the brink of a catastrophic resurgence of civil war as clashes between government and opposition forces escalate. Recent violence has left at least 169 individuals dead following a raid near the Sudan border, raising concerns among international observers about the stability of the world’s youngest nation.
Rising Tensions and Fatal Attacks
The situation in South Sudan has deteriorated considerably in recent weeks, predominantly due to heightened confrontations between the government forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and insurgents aligned with the suspended Vice-President Riek Machar. On Sunday, an armed group from Mayom county launched a raid in Abiemnom county, resulting in a tragic loss of life that included women, children, and members of the local security forces.
James Monyluak Majok, the information minister for Ruweng, the administrative area encompassing Abiemnom, confirmed the fatalities. He indicated that the assault was perpetrated by individuals affiliated with the White Army, a militia that historically supported Machar during South Sudan’s previous civil conflict. The attack also involved factions from Machar’s political party, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In-Opposition (SPLM-IO), which has since denied any involvement in the violence.
Humanitarian Crisis Deepens
As violence rages, the humanitarian situation in Jonglei state has reached alarming levels. The United Nations mission in South Sudan reports that over 1,000 civilians have sought refuge at its base following the recent violence, with medical support being provided to those injured. The UN also noted that approximately 23 individuals sustained injuries during the recent attack.
In a distressing development, Doctors Without Borders (MSF) announced that 26 of its staff members were unaccounted for amid the ongoing turmoil in Jonglei. The organisation has had to suspend medical operations in Lankien and Pieri due to persistent insecurity, exacerbated by a recent airstrike on its hospital and subsequent looting. MSF underscored the critical nature of the situation, stating, “We have lost contact with them amid ongoing insecurity.”
A History of Conflict and Political Strife
The backdrop of this emerging violence is a long and tumultuous history between Kiir and Machar, who were both pivotal figures in the struggle for South Sudan’s independence from Sudan in 2011. The country descended into civil war in 2013 after Kiir dismissed Machar, accusing him of attempting a coup. This conflict has resulted in over 400,000 deaths and displaced millions, largely along ethnic lines, with Kiir’s Dinka community at odds with Machar’s Nuer group.
Despite a peace agreement signed in 2018 that aimed to establish a unity government and restore Machar to the vice-presidency, implementation has faltered amidst ongoing power struggles. The recent charges against Machar, including murder and treason related to a deadly attack on a government garrison, have further strained relations and heightened tensions. His supporters view these charges as politically driven, igniting fears that his prosecution could unravel the fragile peace.
The Way Forward
As violence escalates, observers have noted a unifying effect on opposition forces, now rallying around Machar as a symbolic leader despite his current house arrest. Daniel Akech of the International Crisis Group remarked that the government’s targeting of Machar has inadvertently strengthened the opposition’s resolve.
Volker Türk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, has warned that the current juncture poses a critical threat to the peace agreement, emphasising the need for immediate action to avert a return to full-scale civil war. He stated, “We are at a dangerous point, when rising violence is combined with deepening uncertainty over South Sudan’s political trajectory.”
Why it Matters
The resurgence of violence in South Sudan not only threatens the lives and livelihoods of its citizens but also jeopardises the fragile peace that has been painstakingly established. With approximately 280,000 people displaced in the last two months alone, the humanitarian crisis is intensifying, demanding urgent international attention and intervention. The precarious balance of power between Kiir and Machar illustrates the complexities of South Sudan’s political landscape and the dire need for a sustainable resolution to these ongoing conflicts.
