Ethiopia’s federal government and the ruling party in the northern region of Tigray have exchanged sharp accusations, each claiming the other has launched fresh offensives. The escalating rhetoric threatens to plunge the country back into full‑scale conflict, reigniting fears of a war that claimed an estimated 600,000 lives between 2020 and 2022.
The latest flare‑up began when Getachew Reda, a cabinet minister and senior adviser to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, announced that Tigrayan fighters had seized control of federally administered airports in Tigray and launched assaults on neighbouring Afar and Amhara territories. In response, Tigrayan authorities declared they were forced into a “defensive war,” citing recent drone strikes across the region. The mutual accusations have shattered the fragile peace that has held since the Pretoria Agreement formally ended the two‑year conflict in November 2022.
Military moves and civilian toll
The seizure of the airports prompted Ethiopian Airlines to cancel all flights to Tigray, cutting off a crucial supply line for both goods and people. Residents of Mekelle, the region’s main city, told the BBC that local forces had taken over the airport from the national police early on Wednesday, following days of reported drone activity.
The most dramatic incident unfolded in the southern town of Alamata, where a strike on Tuesday killed at least 14 people and injured 22 others, according to Tigrayan authorities. Mayor Mogos Shiferaw described a relentless assault: “More than five drones and one fighter jet carried out over 21 strikes starting at around 03:30.” He claimed all casualties were civilians and accused federal forces of targeting two secondary schools. The schools, which had served as federal military bases during the civil war, were unoccupied because the academic year had not yet begun. The BBC has not independently verified these claims, and the government has yet to comment.
In a separate incident, the US State Department’s Bureau of African Affairs condemned a drone strike on Monday that reportedly hit a convoy of Catholic vehicles delivering food aid. The strike, which the US said targeted humanitarian assistance, prompted calls for an investigation and urged all parties to resolve differences through dialogue.
International response and diplomatic pressure
The African Union’s Commission Chair, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, appealed for an “immediate de‑escalation” and urged both Addis Ababa and Tigray to resume peace talks. His call echoed concerns from the United States, whose ambassador to Ethiopia denounced the TPLF’s decision to launch a large‑scale offensive, branding it “an unwinnable fight.” The US stance adds to a growing chorus of international voices warning that renewed hostilities could destabilise the Horn of Africa and exacerbate existing humanitarian crises.
Humanitarian organisations are particularly alarmed by reports that the TPLF has been forcibly recruiting young men to bolster its ranks. Such practices not only violate international humanitarian law but also threaten to draw more civilians into the conflict, compounding the already dire humanitarian situation.
Political background and the stalled peace deal
The current tension is rooted in the slow implementation of the Pretoria Agreement, the AU‑brokered accord that formally ended the 2022 war. Both Addis Ababa and the TPLF have faced criticism for拖延 (delays) in fulfilling key provisions, including the integration of Tigrayan forces into a federal framework and the restoration of essential public services.
In July, Prime Minister Abiy accused the TPLF of preparing for renewed conflict during a parliamentary address, fuelling suspicion that the alliance the TPLF announced with six other Ethiopian armed groups was aimed at overthrowing the government in Addis Ababa. The TPLF, for its part, maintains that its alliance is a defensive measure to protect Tigray’s autonomy and to counter perceived federal aggression.
The political landscape was further complicated by the general election in May, which was not held in Tigray due to security concerns. The TPLF restored its pre‑war administration ahead of the vote, disbanding an interim authority appointed by Abiy. This move was seen by many observers as a power play that deepened mistrust between the federal government and regional leaders.
Why it Matters
The escalating confrontation between Ethiopia’s federal authorities and Tigray’s ruling front threatens to undo the hard‑won gains of the Pretoria Agreement and could reignite a conflict that already pushed the region to the brink of famine. With millions of civilians caught in the crossfire, the humanitarian fallout could be catastrophic, while the involvement of multiple armed groups and international actors raises the risk of a broader regional destabilisation. The world’s response will be crucial in either steering the parties back to the negotiating table or allowing another devastating war to unfold in the heart of the Horn of Africa.