Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative government is banking on anti-American trade tensions to boost its chances in three crucial provincial by-elections, as opposition parties accuse the Tories of using divisive rhetoric to distract from mounting controversies.
Voters across Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, York-Simcoe and Scarborough Southwest head to the polls on Thursday, less than two weeks after heated trade discussions with the United States collapsed and Ford publicly clashed with US President Donald Trump.
Trade Tensions as Political Weapon
The PCs have prominently featured their stance against US trade policies in campaign materials, including yellow stickers in Scarborough Southwest reading “Stand up to Trump.” This approach mirrors Ford’s successful 2025 election strategy but comes amid criticism that it serves as a smokescreen for deeper issues.
In Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, incumbent PC cabinet minister Neil Lumsden retired in August, creating an opening for greenhouse owner Jeff Beattie, a former city councillor. The race features strong local candidates across all three parties, with the Tories cautiously optimistic about retaining their traditional strongholds.
Naomi Davison represents the Liberals in York-Simcoe, while Susan Lahey runs for the PCs in what was formerly cabinet minister Caroline Mulroney’s safe riding. Scarborough Southwest sees Ahsanul Hafiz challenging for the Liberal nomination against former MP Nate Erskine-Smith, with NDP candidate Fatima Shaban also in the running.
Polling Trends and Regional Shifts
A recent Liaison Strategies poll suggests Ford’s approval rating has risen to 36 per cent, up from a July low of 24 per cent. Principal David Valentin notes significant gains in northern, southwestern and southcentral Ontario regions, including Hamilton.
“The fact that we’re back onto economic issues, away from scandals and expenses – especially in the closing week of the by-election – is going to make a big shift,” Valentin explained, adding that Ford is “channelling the anger that people are feeling.”
However, New Democratic Party leader Marit Stiles disputes this narrative, reporting that door-knocking efforts reveal voter frustration with hospital wait times and school staffing shortages rather than support for Ford’s trade position.
Competitiveness Across All Three Riding
The outcome remains uncertain despite PC advantages. Hamilton represents the toughest challenge, where NDP former MPP Monique Taylor seeks to reclaim her old seat against Beattie. The riding has historically been competitive, and Taylor’s community advocacy background resonates with voters concerned about unmet campaign promises.
Former NDP staffer Erin Morrison notes that while the trade conflict may have benefited Ford’s messaging, springtime controversies have energized opposition supporters, particularly in Hamilton where voters express disappointment over unfulfilled commitments to tariff-affected workers.
The PCs currently hold 77 of 124 seats at Queen’s Park, meaning they would retain a substantial majority regardless of by-election results. However, each lost seat would weaken Ford’s mandate and embolden opposition parties heading toward the next general election.
Why it Matters
This electoral test reveals whether populist rhetoric can successfully deflect from governance challenges, potentially setting a precedent for how Canadian politicians navigate international trade disputes and domestic accountability. The results will signal whether Ontarians prioritise economic nationalism over fiscal responsibility, with implications extending beyond provincial politics into federal election dynamics.
