Former Canadian Defence Chief Warns World on Brink of Conflict, Calls for New Alliances While Upholding US Ties
In a candid interview linked to his memoir Into the Breach, Canada’s former Chief of the Defence Staff, retired General Wayne Eyre, has issued a stark assessment of the international security landscape. He argues that the planet is now nearer to a large‑scale war than at any point since the Cold War ended, urging Ottawa to accelerate defence spending, forge fresh partnerships, and keep its strategic options open—including the possibility of acquiring nuclear weapons—while preserving its long‑standing alliance with the United States. Eyre’s warnings come as Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government pushes billions of dollars through Parliament and re‑examines procurement processes, yet they also highlight lingering tensions with Washington and internal disputes that have plagued the Canadian Armed Forces for years.
A Warning on the Threshold of Conflict
Eyre’s memoir, which chronicles more than four decades of military service, paints a picture of a nation at a crossroads. He cites the assertive actions of Russia and China as key drivers of heightened tension, describing their governments’ efforts to destabilise the existing world order. “I just hope it’s going to be quick enough for the dangerous future that is coming,” he said, before delivering a chilling judgment: “I believe that we are closer to global war than we have been since the end of the Cold War.” The former general’s assessment is not merely rhetorical; it reflects a strategic outlook that sees the current geopolitical climate as uniquely volatile.
In the interview, Eyre also touched on the thorny issue of nuclear capability. He suggested that Canada should “keep our options open” when it comes to acquiring such weapons, a stance that has reignited debate in Ottawa and among allies. While he stopped short of advocating an immediate programme, his comments underscore a growing recognition within the defence community that traditional deterrence measures may need to be revisited in the face of emerging threats.
Canada’s Strategic Realignment and New Partnerships
Under the stewardship of Prime Minister Mark Carney, the Liberal administration has accelerated defence spending, fast‑tracking billions of dollars aimed at modernising the armed forces and revamping procurement practices. Eyre welcomed the increased investment, noting that the Carney government’s swift action could help offset years of delayed decisions that left Canada on the periphery of key defence initiatives.
One of the most notable developments is Canada’s recent achievement of NATO’s 2‑percent GDP defence‑spending benchmark—a target the previous Trudeau government had projected would be met only by 2032. The former defence chief highlighted that this milestone has already begun to shift perceptions abroad. “The sense that he was getting from his government was that Canada would not be invited into AUKUS Pillar II until we hit 2 per cent,” Eyre recounted, referring to the trilateral partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. He added that while the strategic plan was praised, the lengthy timeline for spending had previously left Canada sidelined.
Eyre also stressed the importance of building new alliances. He argued that Canada must increase its circle of “like‑minded friends, partners, and allies” while not discarding existing relationships. This dual approach, he suggested, would provide the necessary hedging against a range of possible future scenarios, from regional flashpoints to broader systemic challenges.
Tensions with Washington and the Challenge of US Uncertainty
Despite his call for diversification, Eyre made clear that the United States remains a cornerstone of Canadian defence strategy. He downplayed the notion of a direct US military invasion of Canada, a scenario that gained traction after Prime Minister Carney told The New York Times in a September interview that he had considered the possibility of a Trump‑ordered incursion. The Globe and Mail has reported that the Canadian military has modelled a hypothetical US invasion and the country’s potential response, but Eyre dismissed that as a lower priority concern.
“I’m far more concerned about disorder in the U.S. – because they are so polarised – going across our borders than anything else,” he said. Eyre warned that internal unrest in the United States could spill over the border, a risk he believes Canada must be prepared to manage. He also stressed the value of maintaining direct relationships between Canadian and US military leaders, arguing that personal connections remain essential for keeping communication channels open.
The former defence chief’s memoir also reveals a bruising episode involving then‑Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland. Eyre described being “thrown under the bus” after deciding to retain Navy commander Vice‑Admiral Craig Baines following a golf outing with former Chief of the Defence Staff Jon Vance in 2021—a time when Vance was under investigation for sexual misconduct. Eyre consulted a wide range of advisors and concluded that Baines should stay, viewing it as a learning opportunity. The Privy Council Office and the then‑defence minister supported the decision, but Trudeau and Freeland publicly criticised it.
When Trudeau requested a call to discuss the matter, Eyre wrote that he was prepared to resign. “I wasn’t sure what to expect, and feeling I had nothing to lose, I prepared myself to tell him that in a democracy, if there was not trust between the nation’s political leader and its senior military commander, one would have to go, and it wouldn’t be the political leader.” The conversation ended without Eyre tendering his resignation, but the episode underscored the friction between military leadership and political oversight.
Internal Struggles and the Path to Reform
Eyre’s reflections also delve into the culture of the armed forces, particularly regarding sexual misconduct. He admitted to being “naively oblivious” to the broader issue during much of his earlier career, attributing it to a predominantly male environment. “I had spent most of my career up to then in predominantly a man’s world,” he wrote. Later, discussions with former subordinates revealed that his focus on operational success had caused him to miss signs of harassment and other inappropriate behaviour.
The memoir further outlines Canada’s struggle to be taken seriously on the global defence stage. Eyre noted that delayed decisions on boosting military capabilities left the country on the sidelines of intelligence‑sharing arrangements such as the Five Eyes alliance. He recounted being told directly by a British military commander that Canada would be excluded from AUKUS Pillar II until the 2‑percent spending target was reached, despite the updated defence policy released in 2024.
Looking forward, Eyre believes that the Carney government’s accelerated spending and revised procurement approach could help Canada regain strategic relevance. However, he cautioned that financial commitments alone will not resolve deeper cultural and political challenges within the armed forces. He called for continued introspection, stronger oversight, and a renewed emphasis on building trust between civilian leaders and military commanders.
Why it Matters
General Eyre’s stark warning about the proximity of global conflict underscores a pivotal moment for Canadian defence policy. His call for Ottawa to diversify alliances while preserving the US relationship highlights the delicate balance Canada must strike in an era of great‑power competition. Moreover, the revelations about internal tensions, cultural shortcomings, and past policy delays serve as a sobering reminder that military effectiveness depends as much on domestic cohesion as on external partnerships. As the nation races to meet NATO spending targets and navigate a rapidly shifting security environment, Eyre’s insights offer both a cautionary tale and a roadmap for reformers seeking to ensure Canada remains a credible and reliable actor on the world stage.
