In a stark warning that resonates across the continent, Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara International—the world’s largest fertiliser producer—has sounded the alarm on the impending crisis that could grip Africa’s most vulnerable regions. The ongoing conflict in Iran may trigger soaring prices and dire shortages of fertiliser, jeopardising food security for millions. While Holsether refrained from declaring outright food shortages, his message was clear: without immediate action from world leaders, the poorest nations could find themselves in a perilous scramble for essential supplies.
A Ticking Time Bomb
As the war in Iran escalates, its ripple effects are already being felt throughout global supply chains. Holsether’s concerns highlight a growing apprehension within the agricultural sector that the conflict could morph into a “global auction” for vital fertiliser resources. He cautioned that this would disproportionately impact countries like Ethiopia and Kenya, where reliance on imported nitrogenous fertilisers from the Middle East is alarmingly high.
“The most important thing we can do now is raise the alarm on what we are seeing right now,” Holsether stated, emphasising the urgency of the situation. As the financial intelligence firm S&P Global reveals, both direct and indirect challenges stemming from fuel and fertiliser restrictions are straining food supply chains. With 35% of the world’s urea supply emanating from the Gulf states, the conflict has already sent prices skyrocketing—between 60% and 70%—since the hostilities began.
The Unfolding Crisis
Holsether elaborated on the precarious state of fertiliser reserves, noting the limitations in storage capabilities amidst increasing prices. “At some point, you run out of inventory space,” he warned, underscoring the grim reality that many countries face. The war has also severely hampered ammonia production—the cornerstone of nitrogen-based fertilisers—with some nations like Qatar halting production altogether due to safety concerns.
Local farmers in sub-Saharan Africa are now confronting dual challenges: securing fertiliser in the immediate term for the sowing season and stockpiling for future crops. As the EU rolls out measures to support its farmers, including loosening state subsidy rules and providing grants to offset increased costs, Holsether stressed that similar initiatives must be implemented for African farmers, who are already starting from a disadvantaged position.
A Call to Action
The disparity in support between Europe and Africa illustrates the vulnerabilities that the latter faces. Holsether emphasised the necessity of treating agriculture as a business, advocating for a shift in how farmers are supported. “We need to treat farming like a business,” he stated, lamenting the absence of comparable assistance for African farmers as they grapple with compromised soil health and dwindling food reserves.
In Europe, farmers can adapt to reduced fertiliser consumption due to optimised soil conditions, but in Africa, many are already under-fertilised, making them particularly susceptible to the crisis. “Yet again, we are in a situation where the most vulnerable will pay the highest price,” Holsether concluded, a poignant reminder of the urgent need for intervention.
Why it Matters
The implications of this unfolding crisis extend far beyond the borders of Africa. As global food prices soar, the potential for widespread hunger and unrest rises in tandem. The world must pay heed to Holsether’s warnings; failing to address the looming fertiliser shortages could lead to catastrophic consequences for those least equipped to cope. It is a stark reminder that in times of conflict, the most vulnerable populations often bear the brunt of the fallout, and action must be taken now to safeguard future food security.
